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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Commentary April 19, 2013

The EUR/USD today has gone back into confusion mode but with the small daily range and rejection at the end of the day I am keeping a small short bias for today. As I type this its sandwiched between the hourly and 4 hour 200 EMAs and looking to be fixing to break to the upside. I will also be open for a long position since I can also make the argument that it has made a first intraday push up from the lows for a 90 pip run. Having said that I would prefer a short from the 1.3087 level or yesterdays highs on a stop run. The long position I will be looking for will be if I see price leave the Asian box around its highs and then get manipulation into the hourly 200 EMA or just below at 1.3041. The manipulation there will need to be clear because of the level just below that at 1.3026 where the 4 hour 200 sits.

EUR/USD 1hr chart 4-19-2013

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The GBP/USD has done the same as the Euro and lowered the potential on a clear direction for today. Again this will be my preferred pair to trade with the clearer push to the downside Wednesday. Since the hourly 200EMA hasn’t been getting much expect the first level I will look to short is at the psych 1.5300 level. There was clear rejection there during the US session yesterday but I will also be keeping in mind the potential for the stop run to yesterdays highs. Otherwise I will be open for the long with some manipulation at the 4 hour 200 EMA. The respect it has gotten has been much better and the market has already proven the support at 1.5266 as usual with no clear direction on the day the set ups will need to be nice.

GBP/USD 1 hour chart 4-19-2013

Forex News Today

The calendar is very light today with nothing really to mention release wise. However there is a German Buba President Weidmann Speech along with the IMF Meetings and G20 so the potential for tape bombs today is very high. We may not get much movement until we start getting press releases from these.

Have a great weekend


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