Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Commentary February 14, 2013
The EUR/USD made the next push up as expected yesterday. The manipulation started early during the Asian session and right after the Asian box closed it gave the second pin bar into the first support level I mentioned in yesterdays commentary. this entry was more aggressive than I like so I didn’t take it but I am sure some of more aggressive members did and made some nice pips. Good job to those who caught part of the 80 pip move.
Today considering the stiff rejection and the habit of trading intraday pushes as of late I have had to reassess where we are in the levels. As I said before I don’t like it when they do this but we have to be flexible and let the market tell us what its doing rather than think the big boys are going to adhere to our rules. We need to be flexible. Having said that the clearer picture we have now is the 3 intraday pushes up and a reversal down. The hourly close below the support during the Asian session is not all that convincing so we may be in for a deeper pullback or it can also go into the third push chop here. The best way to be trading this pair today will be the manipulation at key levels. The first level I will be watching is the hourly 200 EMA. Its has been getting a lot of respect over the last couple days so if price can hold below during the Asian session there is a good chance we will get the pullback to it with a stop run above the Asian highs for the short around 1.3454. The entry will need to be rather clear considering the potential for the chop to continue. If the 200 don’t hold then Tuesdays highs will be the next one to watch at 1.3474. This is a lesser significant level but with the daily rejection it is still valid as potential manipulation point. I will also be keeping my mind open for the long position from an hourly stop run to the lows yesterday of 1.3425 as we still may be in for the long term push up. However with all the information we have I do prefer the short today.
The GBP/USD showed us a failed first push yesterday thanks to the Inflation Report and Mervyn King saying that the UK has more room for asset purchases. Sending the GBP tanking around 100 pips in one 15 minute candle. I did stick to my plan and took the long after the beautiful set of legs at 1.5646 after the pullback. The level I had in the Wednesday commentary was 1.5644. I waited for the pullback candle to just about close since the confluence was less than desirable. At that point price had at least reached the manipulation box so it added a bit more. I was just about to close it before the news but was a little late and when it spiked up moved the stop to break even and was taken out moments later. No worries at least I didnt take the hit.
Im going to be considering this as a first push down and expect the second today. When we see the failed first push like this the probability for the next 2 pushes is a high probability. The levels I will be looking to short from will be the break out of Tuesdays lows at 1.5572 but considering how well that level held during the US session yesterday the Asian highs will also need to be considered especially if we get a lower push down during the Asian session today. There are a couple of daily levels below here also but the most significant one is way down at 1.5389
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Forex News Today
The economic calendar starts of with German GDP figures expected to drop below zero for the first time showing potential recession gaining hold in Germany. The way I see it is it will need to surprise above zero to have much positive effect but with the bar set pretty low I see less chance of s disappointment but it is possible. Later in the day is the ECB monthly report and if anything has changed since the press conference we may see some movement there but more than likely just manipulation.
The UK has nothing of note.
The US has weekly Unemployment Claims expected at 360K . Considering the last two releases expected at the same figure with surprises to the upside the potential for the same today goes up. If it does miss it will be USD negative so be careful around that release.
How about some Rick Santelli?
Enjoy this video where he tries to figure out what money is worth in our fiat world. Plus he makes a good point about the currency war that is not happening according to the G7. Good stuff. You tell them Rick!
P.S. Thanks to all those members sending the B-Day wishes. Its heart warming to say the least 🙂
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