Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Analysis September 15, 2014
The Euro did make the push out of the price compression it was in most of last week, moving to the upside with a daily close just above all the previous daily highs. This adds to the probability they will run it up for the second push today so I will have the bias for the long while still keeping an eye open for the short at 1.2973 since this move to the upside could be a fake out. The best level for the long is at 1.2943 but they also could stop it just above at the 1.2950 daily high from Thursday. Otherwise I will consider the short from 1.2973 at the gap open which is also where they stopped it last Friday. There is the hourly 200 just above along with a significant daily high that will take work to break due to the next level, they will likely push to after a break, being all the way up to 1.3100. I should also say that the 1.3000 level will be somewhat tough as well but with all the levels just below I think if they don’t want to push it up it will hold before price can reach there.
The GBP/USD stayed in the tighter range Friday after seeing the third push so its best to be open on direction for this pair today. It also has the gap open higher like the EU and also has a hefty level to break before any move up. They will have to be rather convinced that the Scottish vote will be positive for the UK in order to maintain any push upward. From what I have seen its too close to call at the moment although the latest pols still say the NOs are still in a slight lead even if its still within the margin of error.
Today I wont have a bias and will look for the short at 1.6275 or the long at 1.6217. Having said that we are seeing a larger than normal move during the early Asian session so the Asian lows will also be considered for the long if they manage to push up before the London open and test early during the London session. It is a higher risk entry so it will need to be clear on the set up but if they do break it upward or the NO side of the polls gains momentum then they will push it up regardless of the levels holding it back for now. However the way I see it is way too close to call and could go either way on the vote and will be an interesting night to trade when the vote is going on.
The EUR/JPY made another push up Friday getting rather close to a monthly high at 139.29 and showing a weak topping formation. At this point if they are going to make another push they will likely go to the next level above at 139.97 although I have my doubts they will. With the USD/JPY slowing down it will need the Euro strength to carry it if they aren’t willing to push the UJ with it. I will remain open on direction and prefer to see conviction above before I look for a long. The 138.86 level is also valid for a potential long but does carry a bit more risk without conviction providing they hold it above there during the Asian session. I will also be willing to short from Fridays highs at 139.17 with a clear set up.
Forex News Today
The calendar is rather bare today so we wont likely see the large quick moves unless we get another Scottish poll that has a drastic change. Also unlikely the way things look. There is a BOJ Kuroda speech early in the Asian session tomorrow to look out for but otherwise they will likely wait for the bigger events later in the week to make any large pushes.
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