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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Forex Commentary June 27, 2012

The EUR/USD has seen the clear 3 pushes to the downside longer term now. Even though the push yesterday was just under 90 pips we aren’t going to split hairs on its validity. Today we will be expecting the reversal for the move up. The bottoming formation that is forming here has found support at Mondays lows and that will be the first place I look to see the manipulation for the up move but I would be happier if we see it closer to the lows from yesterday.

I do expect that the short covering and potential optimism for the Euro Summit to be more of a factor over the coming days as we see more reports of what they will be discussing there. The fact still remains that a rally could most likely be short lived as the market sees and rhetoric for what it is. (pure BS and anything that is substantial will never get implemented in time) Therefore any long position I take I wont be holding longer term and just using the 90 pip range tool to take profits at.

The GBP/USD went along with our slight bias to the upside yesterday and is respecting its shorter term pushes for the time being. It has broken well above the 3rd push at the lows and has more potential for the next push up today. I will be looking to see the manipulation on this pair either at the 15min 200 ema or the highs from Monday where it found support during the New York session after breaking it to the upside during London yesterday. As the optimism for the Euro does build the move here may be limited as the EUR/GBP will probably gain also but as with any USD weakness it will get dragged up with the Euro.

Forex News Today

Scheduled releases are light again today with only German CPI figured that will be trickilng in for a good part of the London session.

The UK has BBA Mortgage Approvals and CBI Realized Sales and both are medium impact events. Any improvement in these would be good for the GBP but I dont expect them to have large deviations.

The US has Core Durable Goods Orders that is expected to rise slightly. A surprise to the upside is possible with the previous housing data being a mixed but I have my doubts there will be. Later is Pending Home Sales which may have a better chance of surprising if the Core Durable Goods does since most of the goods that make up those figures are household appliances.

Fixing the US 

Today I leave you with a video of Rick Santelli talking with several past administration economics adviser John Taylor about how important it is to have predictability to the monetary policy of a country to make businesses and individuals alike feel good enough about where the country is headed economically so these people can plan for future growth. We simply dont have that now. The fact is there are plenty of unenforced laws on the books already that should they be enforced would most likely see most of the larger Wall Street players behind bars for fraud.

Happy Trading


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