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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold Analysis June 13, 2014

The EUR/USD today has a long term push to the upside showing the short range from Wednesday was the indecision I expected. However I would be more impressed with this move if it managed to have the daily close above Wednesdays highs. I will be bias for the next push up today but being Friday they may not have the conviction to move the pair and stay in the range. The best level I see for the long is 1.3545 but with it in close proximity to current price they may push lower to 1.3533 or even 1.3520 before they attempt a push upwards.  What I would prefer to see is the move up during the Asian session this morning and then the test of 1.3545 with clear trapping during the London session. Seeing the playing of the breakout traders as well would be a plus. Otherwise I am open for the short from 1.3571 with a clear set up. If they keep the Asian range tight and leave the box closer to the lows then the run to the highs with clear trapping would be enough to get me short. Again playing the breakout traders to the Asian lows before hitting them at the highs would add some confluence as well.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD is a little more tricky today with the move on low volume thanks to the BOE Carney speech. On an intraday scale it has made three clear pushes with that move and I would expect some retracement of the inefficiency before I would an extended push to the upside. We also have the Asian guys taking the bait and pushing it up early in the day showing the potential fake out. There is also two very significant daily levels just above it would take some real conviction to break on a Friday. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if either or both of them get tested before a pullback. Long story short I will be open on direction today but the higher probability for this pair is the retrace of the inefficient move before a move up next week. Another thing to consider is the daily close above 1.6917. This does add probability for the test of the higher levels so if they cant do that early in London  then I will look for the long there. Otherwise I will be looking for the short at either 1.6974 or preferably at 1.6994 where the ADR currently sits as well. They may just play and trap at the current Asian highs during London before the attempt to close the inefficient move so I will be open for that but will want to see them leave the Asian box at the lows and see at least two trapping patterns with a stop run to short from there.

GU 1hr chart


Gold made another push yesterday coming within $4 of the level I expect the potential smack down so they may attempt that a bit earlier than I think and start it today. Having said that these pushes lately have been reflective of the US equities markets and if they do continue to drop then gold should benefit and at least test my smack down level or even potentially run higher to the May highs at 1310.50 where the daily 200 sits. I will have a small bias for a long here today with all things considered but open for the potential smack down from the highs or 1278.71 level. I will start to look for a long at 1270.98 but prefer to see them run it to 1265.12 where the buying pressure overwhelms any attempt by the big boys to suppress price.

Gold 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The calendar is quiet until the NY session today. There is the Italian inflation data that could miss big during the London session but it will need to drop well below zero with expectations already close or below zero already. The probability of a miss to the upside is slim.

The US also has inflation data in the form of PPI figures. There is potential for the monthly data to drop below zero, freak the big boys out and potentially weaken the USD but how much they really think the Fed will do is questionable. They all should know the Fed cant do much anymore since what they have done so far hasn’t helped. However like I said yesterday the insanity could easily continue even if we all think they are nuts.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment has potential to surprise but with the data being sold to the highest bidder well in advance it is most likely priced in and not worth mentioning any more.

Have a great weekend


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  1. supersave
    supersave June 13, 05:26

    on today’s Daily Commentary, you said you’d be happier if they showed more conviction on the euro by having the day close above Wednesdays high. Why does the day matter to you? In a 24 hour market, how do you even determine the day upon which you look for this close?

    Reply to this comment
    • Chad Tell
      Chad Tell Author June 15, 22:50

      Hi Dave

      I look at the New York close as the end of the day for a few reasons that make it more significant than say the end of the London day. It also has more impact regarding a level that up coming sessions respect. The reason it shows more conviction is that if they are willing to push price beyond a previous days highs or lows and have the close beyond, it lowers the probability of that being a fake out while at the same time conviction on direction. Much like I look at the hourly close beyond a significant level but on a larger scale making it even more significant. I hope that makes sense.


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