Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold Analysis June 20, 2014
The EUR/USD did make the second push to the upside yesterday as I expected. Too bad it took off right at the beginning of the Frankfurt open and didn’t look back before running 60 pips and pulling back for the end of the day. I will be bias for the third push up today but since its Friday there is the possibility it holds in this range. It also is showing some clean rejection of the daily 200 EMA at 1.3614 so it has some headwinds to push through if they intend make the run higher.
Considering all this and the potential for the ECB to go into full print mode at their next meeting there just may not be the conviction to push. What will be a good sign is to see the daily close above yesterdays highs doing the third push today. Then I will be more convinced of this risk on move that started a couple days ago. At that point we should also see the S&P break new highs and have higher closes as well, but it also seems to be lacking conviction at the moment.
The best level for the long is yesterdays end of day los at the 1.3600 level but there are a couple right below they may push to if they cant get a move up during the Asian session. If they do end up showing conviction below the 1.3583 level I will be leaving this pair alone today and treating the daily pin as a fake out next week.
The GBP/USD made the break of 1.7008 yesterday closing well above on the daily chart for the first clean push out of the range. I did catch the backside trade long I am still holding for a longer term swing trade. I have to admit I may regret holding, not taking the 50 pips and running but what made me decide to give it a chance was the lack of selling at the overall yearly highs of 1.7042 when it tested during the NY session last night. I expected it to hold for the day and pull back some but would have been happier if they made the daily close a bit higher when I woke up. Currently I am sitting 25 pips up with the stop at break even. If it does make the next push up for me today I will be dreading holding over the weekend but that is the plan, to let this run to the next daily level which is roughly 100 pips away, being a lower significant break out level is may have another 100+ pips to run above that as well. Worth the risk to me.
If I wasn’t already long I would be looking to get long at 1.7016 if it can pull back that far. Otherwise the current Asian lows are valid at 1.7033 but seeing them hold above the daily 1.7042 for awhile during the London session would be best to see before looking for manipulation there. There is the possibility for the short on this being a false push but I will need to see something to the effect of them screaming they wont let price past yesterdays highs and I will just close my long taking the 50 pips and call it a week.
Gold had an awesome day yesterday having one of the biggest daily moves in months. That was not quite what I expected in a third intraday push but I’m sure that those that caught that for the long yesterday aren’t complaining at all. There is a lot here to make me think Gold has more upside but in reality anything could happen here. Having an extended move like that in a day just screams pullback. However the move was actually rather efficient other than the 9$ jump between 1300 and 1309.60 where the daily 200 EMA sits and it closed above. The 1309 would be the first level to look for a long today but they may try and close the inefficient move and run it down to 1300.71 or just below. Otherwise I will be open for the short for the pullback from 1318.36 or the stop run above the highs at 1321.36 while watching for any conviction.
Forex News Today
The calendar is rather dead all day long so if they do make a move today it will be on pricing in potential BOE rate increases (or not) or the ECB going full blown retard throwing good money after bad at the markets. Either way stocks should rise and they will keep saying all is well. Good to go for another year or two right?
Have a great weekend
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