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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Market Analysis Jan. 9, 2013

The price action on the EUR/USD yesterday does complicate things a little. However I am still bias for the long today expecting the third push. The level I will be looking at is yesterdays lows of 1.3055. I want to see either an hourly stop run there or some clear trapping candle patterns during the London session. The only thing that will change my bias is a clear hourly close below yesterdays lows. Meaning I want to see clear conviction of the push down so the close below will have to be by several pips.

Right now we are seeing it find resistance at the hourly 200 EMA and support at the 4hr 200 so my thoughts are they are either loading up for the next push or there is confusion going on concerning what the ECB is going to do tomorrow and they dont want to spend the money on the push taking the chance that Super Mario disappoints in some way. Most likely its the latter.

1 hour chart of the EUR/USD on Jan. 9, 2013

The GBP/USD is in the same sort of predicament. The difference being its showing the potential for the false first push to the upside. However we wont know its a false push until we see the hourly close below the previous lows of 1.6007 breaking that psych level also. This could be a good opportunity for a risk/reward trade today if it can get down there during London. The way to enter would be at the best price below 1.6007 and preferably below 1.6000. That way all the support there has the best chance of acting in our favor. Then watch the hourly candle close and if it does close below 1.6007 buy a few pips then close out the trade with a small loss or profit regardless.

Otherwise I will be willing to consider a long at yesterdays lows of 1.6028 but I will need some clear patterns and confluence. The problem is there is the next support at Mondays lows of 1.6020 right behind it and we all know how the GBP likes to turn at the 20 and 80 levels so be very cautious of single pin bars at those levels. Make sure there is good confluence and more than just one set of manipulation candles.

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1 hour chart of the GBP/USD on Jan. 9, 2013

Forex News Today

Again scheduled news releases are almost non existent today with only a medium impact event from Germany. Later i the London session we get their Industrial production figures. Its expected to be a slight improvement at 1.1% so a disappointment will again show they are being dragged down with the rest of Europe and maybe give the ECB some leeway but I seriously doubt it. The way I see it is the correction will eventually come we should have had in 2008. What surprised me was just what they would do to prevent it. Of course only making it worse pain in the end but have no doubt the pain will come. 

Happy Trading


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