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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD November 13, 2013 Analysis

There are two ways we can look at the price action on the EUR/USD today. Either we have a first long term push up or a second intraday push. Either way I will have the bias for the next push to the upside. I prefer to look at it as a first long term push due to the fact it couldn’t get the hourly close above 1.3449 leaving it open to trade against with a stop run to yesterdays highs. The best level I see for the long is the range between 1.3425 and 1.3415. Having said that the proximity to current price makes me want to see the typical playing of the breakout traders or at least testing yesterdays highs during the Asian session before manipulating the breakout traders to the New York session lows or Mondays highs at 1.3415. I will be open for the short with an hourly stop run above yesterdays highs but there will need to be some price action showing they clearly will not let price go beyond 1.3454. Otherwise if I miss the entry long and it runs up around 1.3495 I will be open from the short for the pullback after finishing the third intraday push.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD made an opposite directional push yet again starting when the CPI data was much better than expected and like I said in yesterdays commentary, if it gets pretty close to the 2% threshold the GBP will weaken as it opens the door for more Asset Purchases. The release was expected at 2.5 and we had a print of 2.2%.

Even though we didn’t see a good second push my thoughts are we have a higher probability for the reversal today since I can find the three pushes and it has moved 260 pips from the recent highs. We also have some significant daily support at 1.5879. Having said that I will be keeping an open mind because there already is a nice reversal off yesterdays lows for a move of 90+ pips and that may be all we see before blowing past those daily lows.

Since I am looking at the possibility for either direction the best place for the long is yesterdays lows but will be open to some clear manipulation around the daily level of 1.5879 showing they wont let it pass there. The best place for the short is at 1.5945 but if we do get the conviction below the lows I will look for the short on a pullback.

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GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The calendar is fairly light again today with Unemployment data from the UK expected to improve while later the BOE Carney gives the inflation report. That should be interesting with the CPI data yesterday. There is also another speech from Jens Weidmann from the Bundesbank but with no real changes since his last speech I have my doubts it will cause much movement.

The US session only has a Ben Bernanke speech so watch out for that if you are in a trade or seeing a set up just before.

The Ponzi Scheme

This Max Keiser episode has the typical case of Max losing his rag but the interesting part is the interview with Peter Schiff as they describe the Ponzi scheme perpetuated by the Fed and other central banks. Pointing out that in order for the scheme to continue and not implode they have to keep adding to the scheme to pay off those at the top and what happens when that stops. Therefore before we see any reduction we will see QEternity increase until somebody gets a little scared and pulls out causing the running for the door. Then its all over. Its not a matter of if but when. Enjoy

Happy Trading

Chad

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