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Daily Forex Analysis EUR/USD, GBP/USD December 11, 2012

The EUR/USD has made an attempt at the reversal but is still stuck in the third push chop for now. The entry points I discussed in Mondays commentary never got hit. I did see some of our aggressive members in the skype group caught the long entry on the stop run of the Asian lows. I hope you guys got a good entry and booked the 50+ pips. The continuation doesn’t look all that promising at the moment, but as always the manipulation will be our guide. 🙂

Now we are in a wait and see mode with this pair today. It seems to be holding well at the break out level from Friday last week so we may see it turn here and run down to test the recent lows. If we can get the current 15 minute candle to close back down showing possible stop trapping then it has a better chance to work down. It still has 4 minutes to go. At that point we will have a potential 1 hour stop run also. This is not something I usually trade during the Asian session but some of those more aggressive members may be willing to short on a pullback, I however will wait until London. What I will be looking for during the live London session today is where we see a convincing hourly close or the hunting of the breakout traders like we saw last week Thursday.

We do have a trapping pattern on the 15 minute and the 1 hour stop run. At this point I expect it to push down a at least temporarily. If we see them work down and then test the highs later during London this would be a more convincing sign of reversal.

1 hour chart of the EUR/USD on Dec. 11, 2012

The GBP/USD has had a failed second push, and is now finding support at the 4 hour 200EMA yesterday. I checked around this morning to see if this was a news based move but didn’t find anything definitive. My best guess is that there was Euro weakness along with USD weakness considering the Fiscal Cliff talks and the mess we call Europe these days. We could treat this as the first push up and have a small bias to the second push up today but I feel more comfortable after a failed second push to be more cautious and wait for some clear price action which means today will more than likely be a no trade situation. In order to have a possible long entry on the Pound I will need to see a clear trapping formation at the 1.6060 breakout level. If we do see the 1 hour close below there I will consider a short with a pullback to that level as resistance. Given the fact that 1.6060 in that situation would be a break out level rather than a daily high or low, it is less valuable and the manipulation and entry would need to be very clean. As most members know I am rather tight on my entries so it wouldn’t surprise me if this is a no trade day for me. 🙂

1 hour chart of the GBP/USD on Dec. 11, 2012

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Forex News Today

The scheduled news for today is the German ZEW Economic Sentiment expected to improve slightly but still be well in negative territory. I don’t see any reason why it would be improving but nothing surprises me these days. There is also Zew Sentiment for the Euro Zone also expected to improve and get slightly positive. Again this does not make much sense so a miss to the downside seems more likely. However there is also the Euro Group Meetings and if they do drop some tape bombs they will run the show today. Having said that it seems that these meetings have been rather quiet as of late and makes me think they are getting smarter about what they let out. We will see…

There is a UK 10yr bond auction which will probably be a non event.

The US has its Trade Balance later in the day but since time is crunching in on the Fiscal Cliff talks I think any news coming from them will be more closely watched barring a big surprise from the Trade Balance figures.

More Rick Santelli

Today I leave you with another “lets just have the truth” video from Rick where he discusses the real income differences between 1993 and now. I have to agree with the first point he makes here with truth and honesty being a major part of any useful negotiations. Whether it be a treaty or the Fiscal Cliff. The fact is even though I would say don’t trust any figures coming from China, I can also say the same for the US and most all other western economies. I won’t even get started with the Employment figures much less Unemployment or GDP for that matter. Its all a joke and until we see more truth and honesty coming from our government we have about zero chance of picking up the pieces and moving forward. Admitting you have a problem is the first step to fixing it. Correct?

Happy Trading


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