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Daily Forex Commentary EUR/USD, GBP/USD June 14, 2012

Considering yesterdays price action on the EUR/USD along with the extended moves we have been seeing lately we are going to have to treat this like the market is in the 3rd push chop still and look for clear confluencing factors and manipulation. The fact is there was a nice set up short that just didnt work out and I took the hit. On the chart below I have marked the clear pushes however seeing the extended first leg down there is a good possibility for the second leg to continue. The fact remains though that we have moved back into the large chop and really have no choice but to treat this as there is no clear direction. As you can see I added the 55ema so you can see where my 200ema is on the 15min chart. If I get a clear third intraday push to there and see the trap move I will be going long. Otherwise the trap into yesterdays high and I will look to short.

The GBP/USD remains in the same situation as yesterday. Looking as if there was total confusion and trading rather close the opposite of how it moved in June 12. With all the tape bombs being released these days it doesn’t surprise me but does make trading a little more difficult. Today I will be keeping an open mind and look to trade the manipulation as usual. We seem to be having a struggle at the hourly 200ema and as long as this holds I will be looking to see the manipulation downward to yesterdays low for a long or up into the 15min 200ema which corresponds to the lows of the US session box from yesterday for a short.

Forex News Today

The London session starts off with news from the Swiss National bank on the Libor rates and press conference. I will only be watching for surprise here of which is not expected. For example if they hint at moving the floor on the EUR/CHF then there will be movement in the EUR/USD as a result. I doubt this will happen but we should be aware if we are in a trade.

The EZ also has medium impact news with the ECB Monthly Bulletin, CPI y/y and  Core CPI y/y. I dont expect much for movement unless the ECB Bulletin says something different than the last Draghi speech which almost never happens.

Later for the US there is Core CPI and Unemployment Claims. With the CPI figures dropping close to 0 it does leave more space for the Fed to print USD and if this does surprise and drop below 0 then we can just about guarantee they will be doing some QE in the future as the last thing they want is deflation. With all the bad data as of late it seems the market thinks they are close.

 The Rumor Mill

The market will be focused on the Greek election this weekend. however it seems the main stream media has been leaving all the stupid polls out of the news lately. I cant say they blame them since they are most all skewed in one way or another. Either taking a small sample of the population or in areas where one or more party is the most popular. Always question the integrity of any poll and look at how they came up with the numbers if you ever want to get its true value.

Otherwise we have been hearing that the Syriza party has gotten a boost from the Spanish bailout because of the obvious favoritism granted Spain in letting the bailout funds go directly to the banks while adding to Spains national debt but allowing them to skip the harsh austerity forced upon Greece for its bail out money.

Wasnt it Spain that not so long ago told the EU to shove their rules on reducing their budget deficit and said this years budget target will be raised by a few percentage points only to find out later that it was even worse than they had decided to raise it to? Thats hilarious.

To think they are giving Spain preferential treatment while sending the Greeks to the crapper would make my blood boil if I were a Greek. So when the Greek anti-bailout party gets a boost because of this the rumor mill starts up with pumping out dribble that they are considering loosening the terms of the Greek bailout. Can these guys ever get things right? You could write a book on this stuff and although it would be quite entertaining you would be wasting your efforts if the point was to try and help these people. It goes back to the old saying of “you can lead the horse to water but cant make him drink”

Sometimes the reality can be stranger than fiction. Especially these days.

Happy trading


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