Daily Forex EUR/USD, GBP/USD Commentary August 21, 2012
Apologies for missing the Forex Commentary yesterday. We are still dealing with getting the sites content all loaded and to top it off my internet was dodgy at best.
The good thing though is that after answering several emails late in the day when my internet was good I realized that several of you guys are getting the teachings and knew that the markets had gone into the 3rd push chop with a possible first intraday push to the downside. The EUR/USD gave a nice trap move to the recent highs and a pretty entry about two and a half hours later with the last pin at the high of day. I was happy to see how many of you caught the short. Good job guys.
Today we have pretty much the same thing with the New York reversal yesterday giving back all of the push down and we are trying to test the highs during the Asian session this morning. I will be looking for the same short from the highs on either an hourly stop run or the trap move during the live forex room today. The short from yesterdays high at the 1.2370 area will be the first place I look for the manipulation but if its not good and clear we may see it happen at Fridays highs of 1.2380.
The GBP/USD actually gave the nicer entry and multiple chances to get in the market with all those pins to the high. However it didnt move as nice as the Euro with only about 35 pips when the Euro moved 70+. If I was in that short I would have been out at break even.
Today we are seeing a bigger push during Asia to the upside but I will be treating this as the 3rd push chop also. The first place I will look for the candle patterns we look for will be the Friday highs during the US session around the psych level of 1.5720. Its possible we could be seeing the stop run to yesterdays highs here but Im not too impressed with the hourly close above it so the next few hours will tell me more. Any long position will have to be at Mondays lows to be considered.
Forex News Today
Scheduled releases are non existent for the Euro Zone today but I expect some more stupid tape bombs like we saw yesterday with the report from Spiegel on the ECB talking about open ended bond purchases that turned out to be a big fat lie.
The UK has Public Sector Net Borrowing expected to drop significantly. Just a print of as expected should be GBP negative but with the Olympics ending recently this has potential to surprise to the upside. I will be looking for the clear set up before the release. They also have CBI Industrial Order Expectations expected to drop again also. This is not a high impact event but could cause a stir if it misses big.
The US only has FOMC Member Lockhart Speaking. If he drops the Fed print tape bomb we will see some movement and possibly the New York reversal.
Is The ECB Really Going To Print?
Yesterday we got the tape bomb from Spiegel that the ECB was discussing the bond purchase program again that turned out to be false. So what can we look at that shows otherwise because we all know that Spain and Italy have been ramping up the pressure. Well we only have to look to the Bundesbank or just wait for the ECB to squash the rumors. This stuff is really getting comical these days and its no wonder the smart money is running every which way on it. This was reported from Market News
The Bundesbank on Monday reiterated its objection to new government bond purchases by the European Central Bank and called for strict conditionality on any new bailout loans.
“The Bundesbank maintains its view that government bond buys in particular should be assessed critically and that they come with significant risks for stability policies,” The Bundesbank warned in its monthly report.
“Decisions regarding yet more pronounced pooling of solvency risks should be made through fiscal policies – that is, governments and parliaments – and should not be carried out via the central bank balance sheets,” the Bundesbank said
And later in the day the ECB chimes in with its denial.
1. ECB SAYS BOND YIELD TARGETS HAVE NOT BEEN DISCUSSED BY THE COUNCIL.
2. ABSOLUTELY MISLEADING TO REPORT ON DECISIONS NOT YET TAKEN
3. WILL ADHERE STRICTLY TO ITS MANDATE
Lies, lies its all just lies. This stuff just cracks me up.
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