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Daily Forex EUR/USD, GBP/USD Commentary July 12, 2012

Looking at the EUR/USD this morning I see the attempt to push lower has been held up by Tuesdays lows even though we did have a nice 1hr close below that level. My bias is still to the downside here but it is looking like it may be entering the 3rd push chop before a potential reversal. I would be much happier with the short at this point until we get to the daily support level around 1.2150. I will be looking to see the manipulation around the 200ema on the 15min chart for the short while keeping my mind open for the long at yesterdays lows.

The GBP/USD looks to have seen its false push up and is now back into the 3rd push price action from Friday last week so that does give me slightly more bias to the downside here also. Since it hasnt cleared out of the 3rd push though it has not started a weekly push yet. It does have a clear 1st push intraday but has potential for a deeper pullback before the break lower. Since it had so much trouble breaking below the 15min 200ema during the New York session yesterday I will start looking for the trap move there today. Otherwise the potential for it getting to the hourly 200ema is there and is not far above around the 1.5555 level. If we do get a clear stop run at the lows I will consider a long but it will need to be a nice set up.

Forex News Today

Scheduled releases are fairly light today starting with the ECB Monthly Bulletin. The market will be looking to see any hints that the ECB will be making any more liquidity moves. I have my doubts but it wouldnt be the first time the ECB has surprised me. Later is EU Industrial Production expected to slightly improve and be at a big zero. A surprise to the downside here and there may be room for manipulation but the chances are the market will be waiting for the ECB President Draghi speech later in the day. Again I assume he will be doing the Euro pump but without any big news like more LTRO the market will most likely be disappointed.

The UK has a 10yr bond auction and I expect this will go well as the US 10yr and Germanys 10yr auctions went well earlier this week.

The US has its weekly Unemployment Claims expected to add a couple thousand. If we do see a surprise upward in the 10k area the probability that the market will start pricing in some QE from the Fed and we might see some risk appetite. However this potential risk on will be short lived unless stocks drop. I tend to agree with the Charles Biederman video I posted in the July 11 commentary and we will need to see a more significant drop in stocks before the Fed is going to fire up the presses.


Happy trading


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