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Daily Forex EUR/USD, GBP/USD Commentary June 13, 2012

The movement in the EUR/USD yesterday has cleared up the pushes somewhat. However with the extended pushes and the fact that it still remains in this 230 pip range leaves some interpretation as to direction. The way I will be looking at this pair today is with a slight bias to the downside but considering the possibility for a long if it sets up nicely at yesterdays lows. The 1.2440 level has shown some good support over the last few days so if there is a set up there I will take it but wont hold on for the larger move a good 3-1 reward on my risk would be great on a long position but I will also be happy with less.

The GBP/USD is running quite differently as the Smart Money works the EUR/GBP as it is seeming like the safety of the GBP is coming back. At least against the Euro anyway. It is still in a wide range at the moment also so direction is unclear. It has worked its way into somewhat of a triangle but given the fact it wasnt able to break out and close above the 1.5580 level tells me there is no real interest in pushing it much higher. At this point I am thinking it will be doing some catch up to the Euro in the near future as nobody wants to be the tall blade of grass that gets cut first. Today I will have a slight bias for the down move also and would prefer to short around the 1.5580 level on a nice stop run to the highs.

Forex News Today

The scheduled releases are light for the EZ with Industrial Production and a German 10yr bond auction. The bond auction will be watched close as investors are moving to bonds for safety and yields are at historic lows.

Otherwise the higher impact news is from the US later in the day with Core Retail Sales, PPI m/m and Retail Sales. These figures will be looked at close as they will show the potential for a US slow down and if they do disappoint it will add to the potential of QE3 and the Euro will get a bid.

The Mess Just Gets Messier

Back in 2008 when this whole fiasco started i was telling my friends that we were in for a big correction and there would have to be some deflation in order for the correction to be true. the fact was and is still that over the last several decades asset prices were artificially inflated and the only way for things to get corrected is to deflate them with the least amount of pain as possible. Everybody knows the bubble analogy but I like to think of it as more of a large blister because a popping of a bubble causes no pain. If you violently rum the blister to inflate it and it eventually pops there is some pain you will have to endure. However if you see and feel the blister you have the opportunity to poke it gently with a pin and deflate it slowly with less pain involved and it will heal quicker and better than the one that is rubbed into explosion and ends up getting infected because you chose to ignore it and just keep on rubbing.

This is where we stand today and it seems like the powers that be have no clue that there is even a blister festering.

Well the sad fact is they do and they just dont care. They care only about them self since they know that the proverbial blister wont be causing them any pain because its on the peoples foot and not theirs. Just imagine where the world would be today if they were not so self centered and actually did their jobs to protect the people instead of them self. I will refer to a quote from spokesman for Jean Claude Junker.

Now, courtesy of the WSJ blog, we learn that, for the first time in history, a spokesman for Jean Claude Juncker, the PM of Luxembourg, and the head of the Eurogroup council of eurozone finance ministers, admits openly to having lied to media outlets. “In a phone call and text messages with two reporters for Dow Jones and the Wall Street Journal, Mr. Schuller repeatedly said no meeting would be held. He apparently said they same to other news outlets; at least one more moved his denials on financial newswires. Of course, there was a meeting–although not, apparently, to talk about Greece quitting the currency, which would be an extreme step to say the least. Mr. Juncker even said a few words to reporters who had hustled to Luxembourg to stake out the gathering. So why the lie? “I was told to say there was no meeting,” said Mr. Schuller, reached by telephone Monday. “We had certain necessities to consider.”  Necessities? Why yes: such as perpetuating the now open lie that is the ponzi market: “Evening in Europe is midday in the United States. “We had Wall Street open at that point in time,” Mr. Schuller said. The euro was falling on the Spiegel report, which had overhyped the meeting. “There was a very good reason to deny that the meeting was taking place.” It was, he said, “self-preservation.””

So there we have the truth but and this is just the tip of the iceberg of lies these bonehaeds have been feeding us. When will the people rise us and string these guys up in the middle of the town square? I think we may be getting close.

I will leave you with a couple videos today that I thought were a entertaining. They show that there are some that get it but its going to take more than a couple comedians and CNBC reporters to get the people stirred up the way it looks. Enjoy.

Happy Trading


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