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Daily Forex EUR/USD, GBP/USD Commentary November 29, 2012

The EUR/USD did make a feeble attempt to make the second push with a 62 pip drop from the high of the Asian session but the pullback is concerning to say the least. There was the worse than expected housing data from the US that may have been a little bit of the driving force but there was also the Feds Evans saying he wants to keep interest rates low until unemployment is at 6.5%. This guy drives me nuts. He is also the one who wants to ramp up the printing press with no limits. Going full blown Zimbabwe which we all know cant end good. On top of that some Fed officials said they will continue the bond buying programs into 2013. No real surprise there but when they come out and release something like that they are sure to do it and probably more. So here we are with nothing very clear.

Today I will just be looking for the manipulation at key points on the EUR/USD. The first being the Asian highs of 1.5959 since yesterdays highs were already taken out. If that cant hold for the short the next level is the highs from Tuesday before the US open at 1.2967. Otherwise there is the potential for the long today with an hourly close above yesterdays high or preferably the Asian high. Then I will be looking for a push down and for the manipulation around Tuesdays lows but will need some strong confluence to take a trade there. If for some reason we see the push up during Asia then the possibility of  just a test of this break out area is there just as a heads up for you guys, keep that in mind.

1 hour chart of the EUR/USD on Nov. 29, 2012

The GBP/USD did make its first push down yesterday but definitely irritated me when I woke up to my trade being stopped out at +30 by less than my spread. Having not been able to make the hourly close above yesterdays highs there is a chance it will hold here. However the daily chart shows some heavy rejection and the push back into the 3rd push chop leaves things unclear at best. What I will be looking for is some confirmation with that hourly close above yesterdays highs of 1.6022 and the pullback for the long. I think that has the best probability but I will be keeping my mind open watching the price action.

1 hour chart of the GBP/USD on Nov. 29, 2012

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Forex News Today

News releases look much busier than they actually are today. There are really only a few that are noteworthy starting with German Unemployment Change but without a large miss here we probably wont see much reaction. There is also an Italian 10yr Bond Auction but unless something drastic happens my guess is it will go off fine.

The UK has the BOE Financial Stability Report along with Governor King speaking. This will be watched for clues to more Asset Purchases. If he does hint at more it will be GBP negative. Any talk of stopping current programs and we will see the GBP rise. they also have CBI Realized Sales expected to be much lower than the last release. I doubt there will be much reaction unless the King speech is a non event. Not likely 🙂

The US has Thursday Unemployment claims. If we see the print above 400K like we did last week then it will most likely be USD negative since that will up the chance of the Unemployment rate rising next week and more printing by the Fed. At the same time the Prelim GDP q/q get posted and is expected at 2.8%. Considering there hasn’t been much to validate a rise like that I think it has a higher chance of disappointing. Later in the day is Pending Home Sales m/m and without a big miss here we wont see much. Housing data still isn’t showing much of a recovery in the sector and I expect that to last awhile.

Happy Trading


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