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Daily Forex EUR/USD, GBP/USD Commentary October 10, 2012

Today the EUR/USD looks as though we may have seen the third push. However if I look at the clarity of the pushes the distance of yesterdays price action matches pretty close to the push from the highs. Plus we do have the hourly close below significant support from October 3rd I will have a short bias but wont be treating this as a second push trade and only expecting the short. If I do see an hourly stop run to the lows I will be happy to take the long since it is quite possible we have seen the three pushes. However an hourly close below the lows will add to my bias short and its looking like we may just get that here during the Asian session.

Although we didnt get a trade during the London session live room yesterday the EUR/USD did go mostly as planned in the Oct 9th forex commentary with the initial thrust down through the hourly 200ema then the nice clean test. It wasnt the trade I took as the trap wasnt clear enough but I am still holding 2 GBP/USD shorts hoping for the break of the lows and a full 90 pip push to complete the last cycle but I am not liking the support its finding here during Asia

1 hour chart of EUR/USD on October 10,2012

The third push we were expecting yesterday on the GBP/USD was lack luster at best so I am inclined to believe it will finish today. Seeing the hourly close below yesterdays lows will solidify that but once the the full 90 pip push is reached the chance for the reversal rises substantially.There is the chance that the short push finishes the cycle and it does reverse here so I will be keeping an open mind once I do close the shorts I am in.

Right now its pushing below the psych level of 1.6000 but it sure is finding support here during the Asian session as the Euro being the weaker currency and the EUR/GBP is dropping significantly but coming into its hourly 200ema and should find some support there. At this point the scenario I am hoping for is the EUR/GBP finds that support while the EUR/USD still goes down and the GBP/USD will make the drop but like I often say “when does the market do what we want” 🙂

When we were in the live forex training room yesterday and I was asked about why there was the chance for the deeper pullback. The answer was with the price action that drove the first two pushes. The fact that there was no clear pushing out of shorts as they accumulate for the second push leads me to believe that they will try and push them out before the third push and there is a good chance this is why the third push yesterday was short as they are trying to get those shorts out of the market before the next move down. Or its going to turn here. 🙂

1 hour chart of GBP/USd for October 10, 2012

Forex News Today

Scheduled releases are light today with only medium impact news from the Euro Zone having only French and Italian Industrial Production figures.

There is a SNB Chairman Jordan speech that could push the markets if he says anything about the floor on the EUR/CHF and this would effect the EUR/USD too but I have my doubts there will be much more than the current plan is the right one. What to look for will be any mention of raising the floor or removing it.

The US has a 10yr bond auction and the release of the Beige Book later in the day so anyone trading after London closes should be aware of those

Lets Have a Santelli Rant

Today I leave you with a video of Rick Santelli ranting about the Unemployment figures released Friday last week. I really like this guy but I have to admit Steve Leisman does make a few good points about the volatility of the figures. Having said that i am a true believer in market manipulation and think that the way they figure these numbers makes it easy to manipulate while still looking like its not. “If you cant dazzle them with brilliance then baffle them with B#*l S*!t  right? Enjoy.

Happy Trading


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