Daily Forex Market Analysis EUR/USD, GBP/USD October 26, 2012
Today on the EUR/USD we see that we never got the reversal and now has more than likely finished a false push to the upside. We also have a 90+ pip push to the downside that does add to the probability of the false push up. Being Friday we may not see the confirmation of the false push with an hourly candle close below Wednesdays lows. However with the risk off tone across the markets there is the possibility.
The long we took in the live forex training room ended up getting stopped out at break even after moving off 23 pips. We had a nice clean entry but the market had other plans as earnings across the board have been disappointing creating the risk off scenario. When that happens the EUR/USD suffers.
Today what I will be looking for is the false push to confirm its headed south from here. If I dont see the hourly close below the 1.2919 level during Asia I will be looking for the pullback up to either the Asian highs or the short term resistance level at 1.2962. There is also the possibility for a long with a clear 1 hour stop run from the lows. I would prefer to see that stop run during the London session to have more confidence with a long position. If I do get a good entry I will only be holding it for 40-50 pips since there is a good chance this risk off sentiment will continue.
The GBP/USD will be my preferred pair to trade today as we are expecting the third push to the upside. As I posted in the October 25 forex commentary it was my preferred pair to trade yesterday also but we never got a good entry and chasing trades is not a part of my trade plan. So I missed out on the nice 80 pip run after London opened. Of course this was a news related push with the UK GDP figures being better than expected showing the UK is officially out of recession. Now there is a much less of a chance that the UK will add to their Asset Purchase facility so we get GBP strength
What does concern me about trading the GBP/USD though is there are no clear significant levels around to look for the manipulation. On top of that we do have the risk off sentiment that may show up again today. If that happens the USD will get stronger and this pair will likely be dragged down along with the Euro. Having said that, since we are seeing the EUR/GBP on a tear to the downside with the strength of the GBP then there is still a good chance for the third push. As I look at the 15 minute chart I see a level where the market gap up due to the news. This will be my preferred place to take a long position from 1.6076. With that in mind it opens an opportunity for a short with the right conditions. Most often we tell members to never trade against a second push. However this pair has traded into a significant supply level. having gone into the chop and the US market not showing much interest in pushing it further we could easily see that gap closed today. Of course I will need a clear entry and a 1 hour stop run to the highs will suffice. Most often we also see some trapping candle patterns in that one hour candle on the 15 minute chart and if so will add confidence to a short.
Forex News Today
Scheduled news releases are typically light for a Friday with only one of note from the Euro Zone. the German Ifo Consumer climate is expected to remain the same. If we do get a surprise to the downside it will most likely be Euro negative but I think that the core countries slowing down is pretty well priced in so it probably wont create too much movement unless its a drastic deviation.
The US has its Advance GDP figures today. If this has a big surprise in either direction we will see some choppy price action most likely. Its going to be hard to gauge what the market reaction will be to a deviation so if I’m not in a trade at the time I wont be taking one until well after that release.
Have a great weekend
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