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Daily Fx Commentary EUR/USD, GBP/USD August 23, 2012

Yesterday I found it hard to count the EUR/USD move on Monday as the first push up but come to find out that was the case and now thanks to the Fed minutes and the Feds mouthpiece from the Wall Street Journal (Hilsenrath) we have a second push staring us in the face today. So barring any tape bombs we will be looking for the third today. The place I will be happiest to see the manipulation for the long will be at Mondays high around the 1.2485 level but will also be looking at the Asia lows and possibly the 1.2510 area of support at the end of the US session. With it closing close to its highs I am thinking there is a good chance for the deeper retracement but if the market believes the Fed is really going to print we may not get it.

The GBP/USD has seen the same 2 pushes to the upside and I will be looking for the 3rd today also. I do expect somewhat of a pullback first but its sure seeming like the Asian markets are just pushing it further north at the moment so we may not get it. The first place I will be looking for the long will be the Asian lows around 1.5870. However with the potential of the GBP respecting the 80 level we may see the manipulation there. We will have to wait and see what transpires before the London session live forex training room.

Forex News Today

Scheduled releases are busy today with Flash Manufacturing and Services data coming from France, Germany and the EU as a whole. Expectations are for close to the same figures from the last releases and I dont expect a big surprise but anything is possible. With the majority of the figures already below the expansionary 50 level I doubt there will be much reaction to a small miss but if we do see a big one then things could get choppy for awhile.

The UK has BBA Mortgage Approvals and CBI Realized Sales. Neither of these are high impact events and the sales figures are expected to be a good improvement mainly due to the Olympics so Im not expecting too much movement due to these releases.

The US has New Home Sales expected to improve to 163 thousand. If we do see a surprise upward showing improvement in the housing markets we could see some USD strength as it can effect the thoughts of more QE but I am not holding my breath.

Lies Lies and more Lies 

I just cant help but find it funny that as I am ranting about all the leis being fed to the public these days the good old liar in chief of the European Union Jean Claude Junker holds a press conference and pumps more BS. Just like he did when he said “Greece will not need a bailout” and “Spain will not need a bailout”among several other lies. I find this on Zero Hedge this morning. the commentary is theirs but seems to hit the nail square on the head.

European viceroy of various neo-colonial territories Jean-Claude Juncker, best known for being a self-professed pathological liar, just concluded a press conference in which he did what he does best: lie. Here is a sampling of the soundbites along with our commentary:

EU’S JUNCKER SAYS TRUTH IS GREECE SUFFERS CREDIBILITY CRISIS – coming from a pathological liar, this one is our favorite
EU’S JUNCKER SAYS CONVINCED GOVERNMENT WILL TAKE ALL MEASURES. “all measures” = “all gold”
EU’S JUNCKER: FULLY CONFIDENT GOVERNMENT TO TAKE ALL EFFORTS “all efforts” = “all gold”
EU’S JUNCKER SAYS GREECE MUST OPEN UP CLOSED PROFESSIONS. Chimneysweep? Bootblack? Telegraph Operator? Tax Collector? Prosecutor? Uncorrupted muppet?
EU’S JUNCKER SAYS BALL IS IN GREEK COURT; IS LAST CHANCE. The ball will be repoed to the ECB shortly
EU’S JUNCKER SAYS NOT SAYING THERE WON’T EVER BE A 3RD PROGRAM or 33rd program
EU’S JUNCKER SAYS GREEK EURO EXIT WOULD BE RISK TO EURO AREA and Obama’s reelection
EU’S JUNCKER SAYS BALL IS IN GREEK COURT; not for long: ball will soon be repoed to the ECB
And much more propaganda. Here is the truth. According to Greek Thema, in Thessaloniki, the second-largest city in Greece, so far in 2012, an unprecedented 1,250 companies have shut down. This means no jobs, no tax revenues, no money in circulation. A complete and total economic collapse.

So let us explain: while Greece and Europe may engage in endless check kiting Ponzi schemes: such as the most recent one, whereby Greece promises to pay Germany by issuing bills, bought by its banks, which in turn are repoed to the ECB via the ELA, with the cash used by the country to pay Germany and the ECB, even as Germany’s contingent liabilities get more massive by funding the ECB’s capital, the reality is that unless someone does some work, and creates real wealth, real money, instead of merely shuffling electronic cash from Point A to Point B, while the only thing increasing are German contingent liabilities, aka systemic debt, absolutely nothing will change.

Happy Trading

Chad

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