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Daily FX Commentary EUR/USD, GBP/USD September 17, 2012

Here we are with the start of a new week. The major supposedly game changer news is behind us and now we get a rest of sorts until the market realizes that its all smoke and mirrors again. Once this does happen as we can be assured it will my feeling is the correction will blow in with full force as the markets also realize that there is no more firepower left at the Fed or the ECB.

Looking at the 1 hour chart of the EUR/USD we have extended pushes to the upside and may have one more attempt at higher highs before it runs into significant daily resistance around the 1.3240 area. Depending on how long the QE euphoria lasts. This may be shorter lived than I really expect because each time new unconventional measures have been announced the half life has gotten shorter each time and it is entirely possible that this may be the start of the topping formation before the big reversal.

For today I will be keeping an open mind with a small bias for the long for fundamental reasons. Im still kind of kicking myself for not going with my gut last Friday when I was writing up the Sept 14 forex commentary and entering long first thing. However I did expect some end of week flows of profit taking so I played it safe which is always the better move and I was rather sure I would get an entry during London that never came. The first area I will be looking for some manipulation to go long from will be the lows at the beginning of the US session at 1.3075. There is also a chance we only see the lows of the Asian session at the 1.3100 psych level as its holding well so far today. It will depend on the price action throughout Asia today.

The GBP/USD is in a bit different situation with a clear topping formation Friday. This will play out one of two ways. Either the topping formation here holds and in turn holds the EUR/USD back and creates its own top. Or the weakness of the USD will prevail while the Euro attempts to make new highs and drags the GBP with it. The GBP/USD has about 75 pips from current price to hit a multiple month high at 1.6300 so it wouldnt surprise me to see the attempt. What would convince me that the topping formation is going to hold is an hourly close  below 1.6194. The support level that held during the US session Friday. Otherwise I will be looking at the same level along with todays Asia lows as the places where we should see the manipulation before the attempt at the highs of 1.6300

Forex News Today

There is not much for news scheduled today. There is the Euro Zone Current Account and later the Empire State Manufacturing Index from the US but I doubt these will have much impact on the markets today.

My Favorite Realist

Today I leave you with a video from my favorite realist Reggie Middleton. I not only like his realism but his honest approach to telling the story how it is. Not a sugar coated, blow smoke up our butts sort of thing we regularly get from politicians and officials who admittedly lie when things get tough. Just tell us the truth and lets move forward because if we cant start with the truth we are actually moving backward just like we have been ever since the crisis started in 2008. Will they ever learn? Probably not but one thing is guaranteed. Eventually the truth comes out one way or another. Enjoy

Happy Trading


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