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Daiy Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY July 9, 2014

The EUR/USD made enough of a move for me to have a bias for either a first long term push or a second intraday. Either way I will be looking for the long today. However the safer way to treat it is still being open for the short somewhat. I find it hard to depend on intraday pushes still, even though they have been using them more often while tightening up the average daily range. Once they show some conviction above the 1.3619 level I will be convinced they will push up to test around 1.3646 closing the inefficient move potentially running higher on USD weakness. The best level for the long today is at 1.3590 being just over 20 pips from current price but with them less willing to make decent pushes as of late they may stop it at the psych 1.3600 level. I would prefer to see the hourly close above yesterdays highs and 1.3619 first but if they clearly wont let it pass I will take the risk. Otherwise the only short I will consider is from yesterdays highs where the hourly 200 sits. I will need to see a bit more than just a stop run or rejection but it is possible the conviction to the upside is a fake out.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD made the second push down thanks to the terrible Manufacturing and Industrial Production data yesterday then making the full reversal of the move getting close to price before the release. I will prefer the short today but will still remain open for the long since there wasn’t any daily conviction below yesterdays lows and the potential that this be the third intraday push down. The best level to take the short is yesterdays highs of 1.7145 but the 1.7136 is valid as long as it gets rejected this morning and they push it lower and then make the test during the London session. Otherwise if they do show conviction above yesterdays highs during London I will look for the long at 1.7136 or the Asian lows but also be cautious since they may only test 1.7154 and turn. This is one of those days that I will need to see an entry take off in my direction within 2-3 hours or will just close it to be safe.

GU 1hr chart

The EUR/JPY has had three clear pushes down and due for a reversal bouncing of the daily low of 138.09. It also had a fairly weak set up this morning but I am staying out due to the USD/JPY having the hourly close below yesterdays lows. If they run an extended intraday push on UJ it will drag the EJ with it most likely. In order for me to take a trade on this pair during the Asian session I prefer to see all the Yen crosses showing a trapping pattern with at least one being at a level. I will be open for the long during the London session but will want to see them hold this range and run stops close to the lows yesterday. Otherwise if they do run it up and make the reversal running to 138.42 I will be open for the short from there during London providing there is EU and/or UJ weakness. Preferably both.

EJ 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The only significant data release today is the FOMC Meeting Minutes late in the day. This should be interesting to see if there was much discussed about the stock bubble or anything related to the only result seen from all the Fed printing is rising stock prices. There has been some chatter going around saying the Fed should pop the bubble from the likes of the IMF and BIS. However Yellen seems reluctant, while she would never flat out admit it stocks are potentially the biggest bubble (there is plenty of competition with student loans and US bonds) they may try a controlled deflation of that bubble since we all know if it does pop its going to be spectacular. If they do try to manage that things will get interesting pretty quick.

Asian session traders have Aussie Employment data and Chinese Trade figures to watch out for tomorrow. They could offset each other if any miss is small but they could just as easily boost one another if both are positive/negative

Happy Trading


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