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December 10, 2013 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis

The EUR/USD did not get the reversal I expected yesterday showing the concern I had about the daily chart was warranted. At this time the best way to look at the chart is the push Friday was the fake out to the downside and they are pushing on an intraday basis rather than long term so that’s how I will be treating this pair for the time being. Having said that now we have a first push and the beginning of the second yesterday. We should see this push finish during the London session today and potentially extend for a longer move since the 50 pip move yesterday is well shy of a true push. We still have around 100 pips to go before it tests the recent highs at 1.3829 and with the fundamentals backing the move (Bernanke will not taper and Yellen most likely print more) we should see the test o the highs and potentially break them before we star hearing the fits from the Euro Zone (Germany) on how the strong Euro is hurting their economy. 

Since we have the small daily close above the 1.3530 level which backs the move to the upside today, I would like to see either the hourly close above yesterdays high in order to look for the manipulation at 1.3730. Otherwise the higher probability level is at 1.3714 and if its not clear there they will most likely test the 1.3700 level around Fridays high.

Lastly I want to point out something about the volume yesterday. If I put the volume indicator on the one hour chart I see that the normal daily volume has significantly dropped yesterday. If this does not pick up to a more normal size today we may be seeing the start of the holiday drop of early. If that is the case I will be slowing and stopping my own trading early this year as well due to the higher potential for large surprise moves on low liquidity. Beware guys.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD has made a clear first push to the upside yesterday also closing very close to its highs not really showing much resistance at the daily highs around 1.6435. I will have a bias for the push up on this pair today also but if I don’t see the conviction close above 1.6435 while the Asian range stays tight they will most likely run down to the 1.6400 level before they start the next push. If we do see the Asian range widen to the upside I will consider the Asian lows but the manipulation will need to be clear since the probability of a lower push to the psych 1.6400 is higher.

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GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The only high impact news on the calendar today is a speech from Mario Draghi. I have my doubts he will be saying much substantial but there is always that chance. This would be an opportune time to do some verbal intervention and weaken the Euro. However unless he announces a full blown QE program the Euro will likely strengthen. If he says anything about another LTRO it has more potential to strengthen the Euro also making things worse for the exchange rate. Therefore he will most likely repeat things from the last press conference and will be a smaller event.

The UK does have their NIESR GDP estimate release but with their housing blowing a bubble making things look better the chance is low that it will surprise too much and the potential is higher for an upward surprise than down from what I see.

Happy Trading


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