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December 3, 2013 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis

My apologies to those who didnt get to see yesterdays commentary. We had some issues with our server and the backup was taken when I had just started it so we have lost it forever. I was disappointed to see that as well since there was some good material in there.

Today we are looking at a first push down on the EUR/USD with a nice 90 pip run and small pullback during the US session yesterday. My bias will be for the short today while keeping an open mind for a long with the stop run to yesterdays lows. The best place to see the manipulation is around 1.3557 but I will also be watching the hourly 200 ema at 1.3553 during the London session today. It also seems as though they are buying around the 1.3527 level but this is typical price action of a fake out so they can get more weak holders long before they make the break in the direction of the first push. Also if I do see the conviction below yesterdays lows it will solidify the bias downward but with another level just below at 1.3520 I will prefer to see conviction below there and look to the high or middle of the Asian range for manipulation depending on how far they go below.

EU 1hr cart

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The GBP/USD also made a first push down yesterday with a 90 pip run. It is not a long term push but the efficiency of the move does add to the conviction and I will have the bias for the sort here today also. I will keep an open mind for the long as this could be false also but the probabilities with how this pair has been move as of late are that it will continue. What would be best is to see the typical head and shoulder pattern show as they test up trying to get longs in the market up to or above the 1.6382 level during Asia and then pull back before London opens widening the Asian range and then giving us the manipulation at the Asian highs. The next best level to short from will be the 1.6400 or just above at proven resistance but since the GU likes the psych levels so much the 1.6400 has a good chance of seeing trapping if we don’t get what I want at 1.6380.

GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The Economic Calendar is slow today with the only significant release being UK Construction PMI. Its only a medium impact event so it will take a big miss to effect much. I doubt that will happen and we should see more regular price movements today.

Happy Trading


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