Dollar Strength Begins To Fade – November 11th 2015 Market Analysis
Euro Rejects Lower Prices
After testing lower prices the EUR/USD made an impressive rally and retraced almost all of the earlier losses. I look at the move that occurred in the Euro as a larger type of stop run move essentially. By breaking below the previous lows and then clearly rejecting the test of lower prices it does increase the likelihood of further upside today. I would call the Euro as having a first push up but half of the move to the upside occurred during Asia which is outside our criteria.
For today our bias remains open on direction and we now have much better manipulation points to work from.
GBP/USD Rallies During Asia
The Pound looks to have saved its movement for after the end of the NY Session. Overall we did have a stop run of the upper level but the stop run occurred outside of our valid trading hours. We also had the addition of one lower manipulation point. During the European session a new lower manipulation formed from which I would have considered a stop run to go long. I talked about this during our live trading room, but the NY Session was pretty well dead and we never retested the level.
Today I’m keeping the directional bias open. Like the Euro, we have some better manipulation points to trade from today in the GBP/USD. With that being said we really don’t have a good lower manipulation point that is close to the current price. As I always say though, it is far better to trade from a substantial level than trying to force a trade from a weaker level. I would much rather miss a trade than force a trade from a weak level.
Forex News For November 11th 2015
UK Average Earnings Index & Claimant Count Change 4:30 AM Eastern: Forex Factory has Claimant Count Change as the most important item but based on previous price action Average Earning is by far the most important of the two. This month 3.2 is the expected number for Average Earnings.
ECB Pres Draghi Speaks 8:15 AM Eastern: Although this is marked as high impact it is a tough call as to the volatility around this speech. A lot of times these items are unlikely to create much movement.
Want to learn the bank trading strategy, join our weekly live training room, talk to members in our forum, and have access to lifetime support? Learn more here