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Draghi And Yellen Talk Bearish – November 13th 2015 Forex Commentary

Reluctantly Looking Second Push Up On EUR/USD

I’m going to make today’s market analysis a bit shorter so let’s get right to it. Essentially I will be looking for the second push to the upside in the EUR/USD. I have some concerns about this cycle based on the overall momentum we have seen towards USD strength but a valid cycle is a valid cycle. With that being said, it is critical to understand we still need to see a valid stop run from our pre-selected manipulation point.¬†Without a valid stop run we will have a no trade scenario.

EUR/USD Chart - November 13th 2015

Pound Stalls At Resistance

The GBP/USD Is now testing major resistance that can be seen on the large time frame charts such as the 4H and daily. This is a really key level that represents the current line in the sand. Our first upper manipulation point not only takes into account the large rejection but also encompasses short term liquidity that is above the previous days high. If we are going to continue to the upside, a stop run on the backside of the breakout point would also represent a solid continuation point. We also have 2 lower manipulation points listed from which I would consider a long setup if we see a valid stop run occur.

GBP/USD Chart - November 13th 2015

Forex News For November 13th 2015

US Core Retail Sales 8:30 AM Eastern: This indicator has changed a bit as they have put PPI with the Retail Sales number. Last month both pieces of data were negative and we have a sizeable spike that was followed by further continuation over the next 12 hours. I think its too early to say the same with happen but I can say I wouldn’t carry a trade into the release as it is capable of creating a 15+ pip spike. This month .2 is the expected headline number and .4 is the expected number for Core Retail Sales which is also called ‘ex-auto’ as it does not include automobile sales.

US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 10:00 AM Eastern: This is right on the edge in regards to whether or not I would consider holding into it. In May of 2015 is did have a 15+ pip spike but that is a long ways back. What I can say is if I had a trade that was 10 or more pips in profit then you at least have some breathing room to hold the trade. If you have a running trade and your near break even or negative then I would be closing out for certain ahead of this data release. This also depends on your broker. If you have a broker that is notorious for widening spreads then it is not worth risking it. This month 91.5 is the expected number.


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