Equities Get April Fools Rouse April 2, 2015
Best April Fools Rouse I Have Seen In Awhile
In an apparent reaction to Japanese Tankan figures yesterday the Dow dropped roughly 240 points in minutes only to be slowly rescued throughout the day then smashed again during the NY session and rescued yet again. I am always looking to see a good rouse on April first every year but this particular move was a bit more disturbing than entertaining. It makes me wonder if they might be trying to show us whos in charge or is it possible they are just losing said control and faking it. Never mind for now because the more entertaining rouse was much better.
This one caught my eye this morning and I just had to share. Wouldnt it be great if this were true.
Greek FinMin: “Greece Will Adopt the Bitcoin If Eurogroup Doesn’t Give Us A Deal”
While Greece’s lenders are pushing the Greek government to accept their terms in order to allocate funds so the country will not go bankrupt, Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis seems to have another ace up his sleeve. The second top thinker in the world according to prospect magazine surprised even his closest aids at a secret meeting when he said “We ‘ve had enough, we ‘ll run on Bitcoin.”
Sources very closed to Greece’s minister of finance told Greek Reporter that today Yanis Varoufakis held a top secret meeting with high-ranking finance ministry officials to prepare them in case negotiations at the upcoming Eurogroup fail. The anonymous source noted that everybody in the room was staring at each other when Varoufakis – also a prominent blogger – said “We ‘ll go to Bitcoin, we will be ahead of all the world economies and although it may be painful in the beginning, Greece’s economy will thrive in the long term.”
Golden if by chance it was true but at the end of the article it gives the rouse away with a link to the Wikipedia April Fools Day page. Had me for a second there. 😉
EUR/USD Holds 80 Pip Range
In what looks like an effort to get back to normal size daily moves the EUR/USD held a 80 pip range yesterday. This may or may not be an April Fools prank. I will not have a bias here today but will say that the long term fundamentals do favor Euro weakness so holding a short for a break down is preferable in my mind. Having said that I will start looking for the short at 1.0792 or just above as long as we dont see hourly conviction adding probability of a test up to 1.0844. Otherwise I am open for the long from the lows at 1.0722 to hold these lows and would only be looking for a shorter run to the upside.
GBP/USD Undecided Holding Range
With the GBP/USD reversing against the intraday push and closing the day pretty much unchanged I will be open on direction waiting for some conviction below 1.4815 during London for a backside short seeing that as a higher probability. Otherwise the safer entries will be short from the highs at 1.4869 or the long from the lows around 1.4755. I should also mention the daily level at the lows is rather large and will be difficult to break and anybody who took the set up at yesterday lows did well last night. Good job to members who caught that.
EUR/JPY Showing Topping and Bottoming Inside Range
I will still have a bias for the short today on the EUR/JPY since the first push is still valid. The best case scenario will be with some conviction to the downside below 128.64 but I will also be open to taking the short from the current Asian highs or a stop run above the 128.95 level that held during NY yesterday in which I will need to see the Asian session test lower first. While the 128.64 is valid for a long I will need enough showing in the price action to change my bias.
Forex News Today
The calendar is light today ahead of most markets being closed on Friday for NFP. That should be interesting on a large miss for sure.
We do have UK Construction PMI data expected to drop but still remain well above 50 so I doubt there will be much pushing on it barring a large miss. The ECB Policy Meeting should most likely mirror the statement so probably a non even there.
The US has Thursday Unemployment Claims expected at 285K which would also need a large miss say above 300K to get them pushing potential USD weakness. Factory Orders expecting another print below zero has better potential if it disappoints but any print above zero will be USD positive.
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