Euro Fails On Backside Continuation – March 9th 2016 Forex Commentary
EUR/USD Fails To Give Third Push
For today we were looking for the third push to the upside. To start the day we had a pretty limited set of levels from which to consider a stop run long. Near the beginning of the NY Session we had a break above the previous highs which gave then gave a backside long. Soon after the long triggered the market broke back down through the lows and resulted in a -2% loss. Overall I like this trade setup for two main reasons. First we had a cycle bias supporting the trade, and second there was nothing stopping the price to the upside.
The previous cycle to the upside is no longer valid which means an open directional bias for today. I do favor a move to the downside but opinion does not give us a reason to take a trade. Any trade setup will need to come from a valid stop run of a pre-selected manipulation point. For today I have two upper levels listed on the chart as well as one lower level from which a stop run long would be an option.
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Pound Starts To Stall
To me the Pound is in pretty much an identical position to what I just discussed with the EUR/USD. The only issue with getting a short setup is the limited upper manipulation points from which this could occur. As of right now the only upper level we have listed is yesterday’s high which is quite a distance away. To the downside we have two lower levels from which a stop run long could be considered. One other point that I described in detail in tonight’s daily market preview video was a backside short setup off of yesterday’s NY Session low. Members, be sure to watch the preview video for details on what would be required for this to occur.
Forex Market News March 9th 2016
UK Manufacturing & Industrial Production 4:30 AM Eastern: Many news outlets will mark Manufacturing as the most important of the two. Historical data supports the fact that they have equal importance. If there is only a .2 or .3 deviation from the expected number on both then the direction will be a coin toss. If however one has a bigger deviation from the expected number such as .7 or .8 from the expected then the market will follow that number. It is much less a matter of what news is more important…it is the deviation that is more important. Whatever one deviates will be the news event that the market pays attention to. For this month Manufacturing Production is expected at .2 and Industrial Production is expected at .4