Euro On Hold As Greek Talks Fail Yet Again June 26, 2015
Do NOT Hold Any Euro Positions Over The Weekend
Trying to predict what will happen with any potential Greek deal is futile these days. I am starting to think that the comments an article yesterday will turn out to be the most accurate in that there will only be a deal after Greece defaults. Now having said that there was also a statement from the IMF saying that if Greece misses its payment on the 30th they technically will still not be in default. We wouldnt want any credit default swaps to trigger now would we?
So in short, even though it sure looks like things will come to a head and burst over the weekend. This circle jerk could still go on well into next month. I almost laughed when I satrted reading the comments coming from the Euro Group meeting yesterday. From “the bridge to a deal is close” to “the Greeks wont agree to a bailout extension” ect… etc… However there were some worth noting making me think I really dont want to be holding any positions over the weekend.
- GERMANY’S MERKEL TOLD EU PARTY LEADERS THERE MUST BE DEAL ON GREECE BEFORE MARKETS OPEN ON MONDAY -PARTICIPANTS
- MERKEL ALSO TOLD CONSERVATIVE EPP LEADERS “WE WON’T BE BLACKMAILED” BY GREECE -PARTICIPANTS
- *EUROGROUP SATURDAY HAS TO GET THE DEAL DONE, EU OFFICIAL SAYS
- ECB Governing Council member Luc Coene warned today that The ECB stood ready to reassess its decision to continue providing liquidity assistance to Greek banks.
The last one is the biggie. If the ECB cuts off Greek banks then things could get dicey real quick forcing a Cyprus event in Greece.
EUR/USD Refuses Third Push
With no movement on the EUR/USD for two days I wont have a bias on direction even though the higher probability is a sell off before the weekend. The best level to short is up at 1.1221 but if Asia gets them rolling I will consider the Asian highs on a retest during London. Otherwise the potential for a long is only at yesterdays lows of 1.1153 and could only get hefty support if there is a real announcement of a deal which is unlikely because they arent scheduled to meet again until Saturday.
GBP/USD Runs Reversal Push
The GBP/USD did make a decent intraday push for the reversal yesterday. Too bad the entry at the lows was knocked out at break even and the second set up added more risk keeping me away but I will say the move was nice and as usual its nice to have a good idea of what they will be doing 🙂
Today I will be more open on direction since if they are to make a second intraday push it will need help from the USD which is unlikely if the potential risk off scenario gains hold during London this afternoon. I will be open for the long at 1.5720 if the set up is clear but also looking for a potential short at the Asian highs just above 1.5748 but a safer short would be to see a stop run to yesterdays highs.
Risk Aversion Hits EUR/JPY
The push on the EUR/JPY yesterday still leaves me somewhat bias for the short today while the rejection adds a little doubt. If the risk aversion continues then it will drop more significant since the EU is going with. S&P futures are taking a hit this morning as well but I am cautious of any Greek rumors throwing a wrench in a continuation. The best short will be from the Asian highs at 138.55 but if the run down continues the daily lows from Wednesday and Thursday are valid once it finds support at 137.86. I will be open for the long from 137.86 but a deeper pullback will need help from a Greek tape bomb.
Forex News Today
The calendar is almost dead today other than Michigan Consumer data during the NY session along with another BOE Carney speech. Barring a big miss in Michigan Consumer Confidence, which should be mostly priced in, then they will be looking for hints from Carney to push the GBP around today.
Have a great weekend
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