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Euro Responds Negatively To New Deal – July 14th 2015

Euro Sells Off After New Deal Comes Forward

I must say, I called this one pretty accurately. Then again anyone with half a brain knew no substantial progress would be made for the Greek people. Yet again they are going to be sold out to the banks. Its a beautiful trap that works yet again. Get the people in debt deep enough they will never be able to repay it, then take the only thing that matters….physical assets. The banks now officially own most major Greek infrastructure. My only question is why in the heck did the Greek people vote? Seriously! They voted NO and yet a deal to sell them down the river still goes through? In what is always called the birth place of democracy it would seem your vote means nothing. Don’t take the last sentence as me being surprised, because I’m not. Anything other than kicking the can down the road would have been the only surprise.

Regardless of where you are in the world you should take this as a lesson. Government has historically, is currently, and will always feed off the people. Since the central banks rule the world via the government you now see the banks feeding off the people. All developed nations around the world run a massive debt and that debt will come home to roost. During the first 9 months of the fiscal year the US government raked in 2.44 trillion dollars which is a new all time record. That is just over an average of $16,000 extracted from every person who was employed during the month of June. Even with that massive pillaging of the people the deficit continues to rise. The bottom line is if your an employed person you have no ability to defend yourself from taxes. The best step anyone can take right now is to get out of the employee column and step into the investor or business owner column. If you have never read the book Rich Dad Poor Dad I would recommend checking it out so you can begin to protect yourself as much as possible.

Euro Slides Hard On News Of Greece Screw Job

At the beginning of the week I was open on direction and I remain the same today. Why you might ask? The news of the day is the driving force in the Euro right now, not overall direction. With that being said sentiment could shift with any current shift in risk aversion/appetite. As such my main recommendation is only trading from major levels on the Euro and avoiding anything else. As I have recommended many times get a live squawk based news for any tape bomb headlines that hit the wire. The cheapest two are Talking Forex and Trade the News.

EUR/USD Chart - July 14th 2015

GBP/USD Creates A Larger Stop Run

The Pound created a larger stop run to the upside and then followed that up with a potential first push down. Today I will be looking for the continued push down on the Pound. The Pound has a few decent levels to work from. The current Asian highs still need more formation before I’m really confident enough to use them. Make sure to watch the daily market review for a further break down on that criteria. Another point to consider would be a potential backside of the level day trade setup. That link points to a nice video detailing that type of trading strategy.

Like I stressed in yesterday’s EUR/USD trade analysis, cycle is just one filter. We still must see our specific entry criteria satisfied once a potential manipulation point is reached. Without that there is no trade. That is also our protection for when cycle breaks down. As an example, if the GBP/USD were to push up today we would more than likely have a no trade day in the Pound as the strategy still requires a confirmation once a manipulation point is reached to take a short. When the market is going to continue through a level without reversing the confirmation will the majority of the time not set up thus serving as our main protection in a counter cycle move.

GBP/USD Chart - July 14th 2015Forex New For July 14th 2015

Overall it is quite a heavy news day considering the addition of Euro news at any time during the day remaining a possibility.

UK CPI 4:30AM Eastern- This is a news item that is definitely capable of spiking the market and therefore I would not be carrying a Pound trade into this news. Any deviation from the expected number will create a large move. This number is a big deal as it it near the lowest rate in more than 10 years. Even during the 2008-09 collapse, CPI never went lower than 1.1. Currently it has been sitting right around 0 for the last 4 months and its as if the market is looking at it like a strong tipping point. Expect a big move with any deviation. One more point…there are some mixed expectations on this. I have checked many news sources and I would use +.1 as the forecast number. Forex Factory is reporting 0, but they look to be the odd man out.

German Zew 5:00AM Eastern – Expected at 30.6 this month. This one can definitely move the market but it takes quite a large deviation. Something in the range of 12 +/- should create a 15+ pip spike but we haven’t seen this in quite a few months.

UK Carney Speaks 7:45AM Eastern – Due to testify on the financial stability report. Anytime a central bank head is speaking the potential for a large move exist.

US Retail Sales 8:30AM Eastern – US data has come back in style and this report is no different. The last few months it has not only created a very large spike but it has also had a great deal of follow through after the initial reaction. You have to pay attention to both the headline number as well as the “core” number which is sometimes called “Ex Autos” as it excludes automobiles sales as the name implies. Any conflict between the two will create a whipsaw back and forth. Retail Sales M/M is expected at .3 and Retail Sales Ex- Autos is expected at .6 this month.


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