EUR/USD Forex commentary January 12, 2012
Wednesday was interesting trading guys. With all the tape bombs during the day from more rumors of a French downgrade to Fitch coming out and saying the ECB needs to step up and do everything to prevent a Euro crash. Then saying the ECB cant do it alone LOL. The French downgrade was quickly squashed by the French treasury but still remains a concern. As for Greek bond write downs the picture still remains unclear. On one hand we have banks saying they need clarity on the deal and stories of how the hold outs have been more or less forced to take the hit. Given the choice of write off 50% or take a 100% loss. That seems like a no brainer to me. However the IMF did come out and admit that they think Greece will need at least tens of billions more cash at the next bail out in March. Things are still in a cluster of all clusters. If you know what I mean. At this point its still a toss of the coin as whether or not Greece will default in March. I think it will depend mostly on the hold out hedge funds that have significant CDS they are holding and if any reports come out of creditors being forced to take the haircut. At that point I think the rating agencies will have a field day trying to get the first default rating out for Greece.
There is a plethora of news today most notably the ECB rate decision. They are expected to leave them unchanged but the press conference should be interesting as usual. Then during the US market there is retail sales and unemployment numbers. Both of which will have an impact if the numbers are better than expected. Mainly due to the strengthening of the decoupling theory and US equities will most likely get a bump. The Euro will probably get hurt but its a toss up as to whether it will make the plunge thru the daily support at 1.2700 its been having trouble with. Other than that I expect the same trickling out of the tape bombs as usual. If France ever does get downgraded then the daily support will be just a blip on the screen.
Getting to the charts. The daily has bounced off the support as mentioned above and will most likely take some time to break. Its doubtful if there will be a break during Asia but still possible since there is inflation numbers coming from China here shortly. A steep drop in those could trigger a sell off in risk currencies with the Aussie being most affected. Looking intraday at the 15 minute the intent bar to the left has held its ground so all is looking good for a down move but its going to have a fight on its hands considering the double bottom around 1.2665. I will be looking to short from the 1.2730 level but as I mentioned I don’t expect much from Asia today.
Be careful out there