EUR/USD Forex Commentary March 8, 2012
If there ever was a day that we should all take a break from the markets today would be one of the highest on my list. Not only is the Greek PSI deal release scheduled to come out around 11:00GMT which is enough right there to take a days vacation on but there is also a plethora of scheduled news releases also. Starting with German Industrial production and considering Factory Orders was much worse than expected yesterday I would expect some of the same from this release but maybe not quite as bad. Next on the list is the interest rate decision from the Bank of England and their rate statement. The decision its self will most likely not move the markets but if any surprise addition to the Asset Purchase Facility will. However the inflation has been slightly increasing in the UK so the chance of that is low.
Next is the ECB rate decision and Mario Draghis press conference later. I dont expect much movement until the press conference gets under way but all this will most likely be secondary until the release of the Greek PSI deal comes out. Then finally the Unemployment claims from the US and are expected to drop slightly.
In other news the Wall Street Journal reported on a possibility that the Federal Reserve may be considering QE3 again. What a joke. The fact is that QE3 has been discussed so much in the recent past that the chances of it mostly being priced into the market already is high. Of course there will be a pop in equities and risk sentiment initially but this will most likely be short lived. Especially with the European situation not getting any better and showing more signs of actually getting worse.
Getting to the charts. I never like to toot my own horn but when the market does exactly as you expect ya have to feel good about what your doing. And you dont have to tell me because I have already reminded myself “just dont let it go to your head Chad” LOL. The EUR/USD has gone down and ran a beautiful stop run, trap move at the lows from Tuesday just as I mentioned in Wednesdays EUR/USD commentary. The problem is it did it during the US session and I missed the trade. However I was happy to hear some students that trade the US session saw it and took advantage.
As usual with the massive amount of news coming out today the Smart Money will move the market during the Asian session and the EUR/USD has broken some resistance at the recent highs. If this manages to continue we will see the first level and be looking for more accumulation and manipulation for another long trade in the near future.