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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis April 15, 2013

As I am reading through my news sources this morning I found something interesting from The Telegraph I thought I would share. Germany has lost its patients. Yes I know your going to say that the Cyprus deal made that pretty clear also but at this point it seems more than just Merkel posturing for the next election she will most likely lose. What happened is some of her top advisors released a report saying “The rich must give up part of their wealth over the next ten years.” Well that’s a start and then they go on to admit what a mistake it was hitting savings accounts saying, “The canny rich in southern Europe just shift their money to banks in Northern Europe to escape seizure” Well duh! I would do the same thing as would anybody with half a brain and a lot to lose. The final nail in the coffin comes from Reuters with news that Germany has more or less said there will be no banking union with out a new European Union treaty. Go Germany!!

So I figured I would throw in my two cents on this new treaty and hopefully it would become a template of what the rest of the west needs to restore confidence in the system. how to do that is starting with accountability. First pass a law that attaches the wealth of the top 10% earners at each bank to the success/failure of said bank. Therefore the first assets to be seized are those who have been benefiting from the bad decisions the most. Now some would say that this would cause a brain drain on the financial system just like they made the same argument when they tried to cap CEO pay at these same institutions. In short these guys would go somewhere else to do their crap. I say let them go and eventually it will catch on everywhere and they will have no where else to go.

One should also point out that the financial system has caused a brain drain on other more beneficial industries to humanity. The example I am getting from a movie to the truth of this example is questionable but the idea is totally plausible if not probable. In the movie Margin Call the guy who figured out the bank was about to fail was educated as a rocket scientist right? When asked why he chose to ditch science and go to the financial industry to work his answer was “its much more lucrative” So effectively the financial system has been causing a brain drain all over different sectors due to the more lucrative nature of crunching numbers at a bank.

I just don’t see how that is right especially since some of these guys where the ones who thought up derivatives. Then derivatives on derivatives, so in reality we have found out that the lucrativeness of the financial markets has not only caused a brain drain on the rest of the productive sectors but has also got these guys thinking in ways that has only hurt the financial system in perusing a bigger buck. I have to say  think we could do without that.  Ok Im done ranting for now. More to come tomorrow. On to the charts.

The EUR/USD is back into a chop so I wont have any bias on direction today. With this large move during the Asian session the first place I will be looking to short from will be around the 1.3100 psych level. There are a couple of levels close so it will be the manipulation that tells the story rather than the level it hits and I don’t want t see a full retracement during Asia. If that happens they will probably test the highs at the 1.3120 level. There really isn’t much in close proximity to take a long from besides the Asian lows just established so I want to see the push up and retracement back to that level with a stop run to take the long from there.

EUR/USD 1hr chart 4-15-2013

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 The GBP/USD is in the same position with no clear bias on direction so I will be treating it the same. The first place I will be looking to short from will be the 1.5333 break out level but only if it holds during Asia and doesn’t come too close before London opens. If it does then they will likely test the 1.5352 level before we see manipulation for the short. The daily low from Friday does not show up on my other two platforms so I am treating that as a broker anomaly rather than a level. The potential for the long is at these daily lows so far with the support from Thursday last week kicking in so a pullback towards the 1.5333 during Asia and a stop run to the lows will build the confidence in a long but it will need to be clear and I will be watching for the hourly conviction close below during London. If that happens my bias will turn to the short.

GBP/USD 1hr chart 4-15-2013

 Forex News Today

The only news worth mentioning is during the US session with TIC Net Long-Term Transactions. Expected to rise substantially and if it manages to surprise to the upside it will be USD positive.

Otherwise I expect this news from Germany over the weekend getting digested along with any back peddling by German officials throughout the day to be what may be the main driver of the markets today. I have my doubts they will back off and any ratcheting up of the comments will have a USD strength effect too.

Happy trading


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