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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis August 13, 2013

The EUR/USD made the second push as I expected yesterday. I have to say it was lackluster considering it was only 67 pips from the highs but with the Average Daily Range tightening up as of late along with the pullback and close lower I will expect the third push today.

The best level for the short is 1.3311 but with the range between that and the lows only being 36 pips we will likely have a tighter Asian range today. That will make any entry aggressive in nature unless we see them push to the ends of that 36 pip range during the Asian session. Of which I have my doubts. We also have the hourly 200EMA hovering around the psych level of 1.3300 that could also hold but I will need to see some confirmed manipulation there in the form of at least two trapping patterns and would prefer to see the hourly close below the lows to show they have conviction in the move to the downside first.

For those of you trading the NY session be careful of the US ramp up. By the looks of the S&P it is still holding up and with high impact news during the NY session today if it is better than expected the Euro will benefit from a push in equities. I will admit that has been falling apart some what as of late but unless we see the European news disappoint while US data improve the Euro will ride with equities some what.

EUR/USD 1hr chart

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The GBP/USD has made what I see a clearer long term first push down rather than a second push due to yesterdays movement only being 60 pips. We also see every hourly candle so far this morning closing below yesterdays lows. Although I see the hourly close beyond a significant level during the Asian session as being less reliable. When we have several of them we cant ignore it.

I will also be bias for the short on this pair today but with the best level being 1.5484 I somewhat expecting that they make the push down during London and pullback to test yesterdays lows before running off. The other scenario I would be happy to see is a run up above yesterdays low and increase the probability of getting to 1.5484 or around the 1.5500 psych level.

GBP/USD 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The high impact news events today start with CPI figures from the UK. Expectations are for a slight drop but still well above the 2% threshold they are aiming for. If it can manage a surprise to the downside it will open the door for more asset purchases and be GBP negative but I think the miss will need to be big.

The Euro Zone has ZEW for Germany and the EZ expected to rise substantially for both. A large miss here will be Euro negative but I think it will be close. The data from Germany has been upbeat as of late and this has a good chance of continuing. There is also Industrial Production for the EZ at the same time expecting a rise into positive territory, which I see as a good possibility if the other recent data is any clue.

The US has Retail Sales figures expected to rise slightly. A miss to the upside will be good but the possibility for the downside miss is high too so be careful trading around the release.

Happy Trading


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