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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis December 5th 2013

The price action we saw on the EUR/USD yesterday is the classic example of why we always say that when we see no clear direction its safest to trade from the extremes of the range created showing us they have no clue which direction they will push. There was a nice entry for the New York reversal after it came down and hit the 1.3531 level. About two hours before the entry I was talking to a member on Skype going over this exact trade as it was coming down two candles before it hit the lows. There was a level it was hitting at the spinning top candle but that buying pressure alone wasn’t enough to enter and after the next candle I said its likely to test the lows where there was much more confluence to turn the market. Sure enough it did and showed some trapping and then the low volume test about an hour later. I sure hope you caught that Paul 😉 From the best entry price it ran almost 70 pips and anyone who wanted a little more confirmation and waited for the low volume test candle to close should have had 60 on the table when all was said and done. Good job to the members who caught that.

Today we have the same thing with no clear direction so the same thing goes today as in yesterdays commentary with the exception of the level that has the most potential in the middle of the range for a long has moved down somewhat around the hourly 200 ema. I will also say yesterdays level at 1.3568 is still just as valid but having the confluence of the 200 ema adds more probability to the trade. The problem with them both is the violation that occurred yesterday so I will be cautious and want a good set up there while watching close if I enter for the long in the middle of the range. Otherwise the short should only be taken with a stop run to the highs or close to the 1.3600 psych level. I would prefer to see them play the breakout traders at the lows of the Asian range or at least widen it up a bit and leave the box closer to the lows before the stop run.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD had similar price action in movement for the day but the correlation as far as the scope goes it was a little less volatile. Never the less we still have the same situation with no direction while it hovers around in the middle of the range still. With the couple closes below Mondays lows I could call this a second push but seeing how it has gone back into the range I will only have a small bias for the short here. The best level is around the psych 1.6400 level while I will still be open for the long from yesterdays lows with the right price action.

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Forex News Today

The calendar is busy with rate decisions from the BOE and ECB today. Of course as usual the BOE will most likely be a non event as there has been no prepping for an increase of their Asset Purchases and we all know they cant lower or raise their rate so the release may be a chance for them to manipulate a little but should fizzle quick unless of course they do surprise. The ECB will be the one that makes the markets twitch like normal. There will be no surprise with rates either but any hint of another LTRO or the small chance of announcing one will most likely make the Euro jump higher across the board. The reason is that even though its back door printing it will give reason for a risk on situation since the LTRO is basically loans rather than the free money drop the Fed is doing. In turn these pretty much free loans should help back the European economy therefore increasing risk potential. Having said that I do see the chance of that as small because they really don’t want a stronger Euro as it damages Germanys exports.

Later the US has Fed Member Fisher speaking but I have my doubts there will be much there. If you are in a trade then be aware but otherwise lower your risk or get the stop to break even and relax.

This Guy Really Ran the Fed

I know everybody knows who Alan Greenspan is buy I about fell out of my chair laughing this morning when I saw this. These were his comments about Bitcoin and why it shouldn’t have any value. This is the same guy who started the housing bubble and was a major player in the destruction of the USD.  Here is the excerpt from the Zero Hedge article.

“In order for currencies to be ‘exchangeable’ they have to be backed by something,” is the remarkably ironic initial comment from none other than debaser-of-the-entirely-fiat-dollar Alan Greenspan when asked about the “bubble in bitcoin,” by Bloomberg TV’s Trish Regan. Unable to “identify the intrinsic” backing of Bitcoin (or see bubbles in equity, credit, real estate, or greater fools) Greenspan is, apparently, capable of identifying Bitcoin “as a bubble,” because “there is no fundamental means of “repaying’ it by any means that is universally accepted.” The farcical double-speak continues as the Maestro does a great job of making Bitcoin (which Ron Paul earlier noted could be the “destroyer of the dollar”) look even better than the readily-printed fiat we meddle with every day.

Happy Trading


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