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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis February 18, 2013

The EUR/USD has gone into the third push chop now and the safest way to trade it will be from the extremes with some good manipulation candle patterns. Having said that when I look at the price action alone there are two things to consider. The first being the daily chart rejection. It would seem that the US boys didnt agree with the push down and brought it back to the daily open pretty hard. However when they tried to make the run to the highs of the day they were rejected also. My thoughts are these were the week end flows I mentioned in Fridays commentary.

I would be a lot happier if there was an hourly close below Thursdays lows with some conviction showing the reset as they tried to push weak shorts out of the market but that didn’t happen so we need to be cautious with this pair today. There is also the gap down for the start of the day that has already closed and tested afterward. 

For today I will be looking at the 4 hour 200EMA to start with at 1.3355 but only if it holds below during Asia. It has been getting some respect this morning while it was pretty much ignored Friday so it does have a chance to see the manipulation for the short today. Otherwise I will look to 1.3375 or Fridays highs of 1.3392 for the short. I will only be looking for a long with a stop run below Fridays lows of 1.3306 since there are no decent levels in between.

1 hour chart of the EUR/USD on Feb 18, 2013

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The GBP/USD has very similar price action showing the USD was in consideration more than it has been lately. This could also be the week end flows so I am not going to read too much into that. Having gone into a third push chop also and finding the support just above the daily level at 1.5455 leads me to think they are loading up for a good push this week. However we wont know which direction until we see some conviction. It also has gaped down and not quite closed it this morning so I would think they will play those gap traders and let it close during Asia today. 

The level I will be watching for the short is Fridays highs for the most part. However if they cant make a push beyond the close of the gap then the Asian highs will come into play if we see Fridays close hold. Otherwise I will also consider a long with some manipulation at the Asian lows today. It is within close proximity of the daily level and we are already seeing some manipulation candle patterns this morning so if we get more during London a stop run to 1.5471 will be a bit aggressive with the daily level just below at 1.5455 so I will want a nice entry with my stop well below there.

1 hour chart of the GBP/USD on Feb. 18, 2013

Forex News Today

The only scheduled news of note today is a Super Mario Draghi speech. At this point I expect more dribble about the strength of the Euro and we may see a drop again if he says anything about it. With him doing a 180 degree turn lately I have my doubts this will stop anytime soon.  

Some Monday Humor

I thought I would share a joke that goes around between foreigners here in the Philippines. In light of all the scandals rolling around from the Heinz deal leak to Super Mario letting the third largest bank in Italy hide losses with hidden derivatives, Russian black money in Cyprus, the list just goes on and on. 

As most know the Philippines was known to be close to the top if the list on corruption not too long ago and this was a concern in deciding to live here. The joke goes like this. A Philippine senator is in the US for a UN event and runs into an American senator that invites him over for dinner. As the Filipino senator walks into the American senators house he notices that he is living well beyond the pay scale of an American senators wages. He has a 15 room mansion with a maid, nanny, cook etc so the Filipino senator asks how he does it. The American senator walks over to the window of the beach house and points outside and says “see that bridge over there”? The Filipino says “sure what about it”. the American senator points to himself and says “I made 10%” The Filipino senator says “nice!” and they finish the dinner and go their separate ways. The next year this same American senator is visiting the Philippines and runs into the same Filipino senator and he invites him over for dinner to his house. Of course being colleagues the American senator goes and when he arrives sees that the Filipino is living well beyond his meager salary also. The Filipino Senator has a 30 room mansion, 5 maids, 3 nannies, a driver, 5 cars etc. So the American senator has to ask. “Now I know this life costs much more than your salary as a senator so tell me how you do it” The Filipino grabs him by the arm and they walk to the window overlooking the river and the Filipino senator points out and says “see that bridge over there” The American senator says “what bridge, I dont see any bridge” The Filipino points to himself and says “I made 100%”

The rest of the world is not far off that considering what has been coming to light lately. Hopefully they get their just reward and spend considerable time in jail but I have my doubts this will happen until we get the market crash and the people demand it. We will see.

Happy Trading


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