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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis February 25th 2014

The EUR/USD stayed inside the range as expected yesterday so today it has a better chance of breaking out. With no conviction in either direction again the best levels will be 1.3705 for a long where the daily level coincides with the 200 EMA. I will only be looking for a short at either 1.3761 or 1.3772 again. If they do want to run it down I expect they will hit stops above yesterdays highs but looking at just the price action the long has a slightly higher probability. If I don’t catch a trade at the levels I will be watching for any conviction and trade in that direction with a pullback.

At this point there is the possibility that they are waiting for more signs of what Janet Yellen does with the continued tapering. So far it looks as if I may have been wrong with the undoing of the taper and continued print fest with most of what I am seeing showing she will keep the taper going and even dial it up somewhat. If that does happen we will see the USD strengthen more. From what I am reading these days most are thinking the Fed knows that what they isn’t doing much to help the economy and need to change course. We will have to wait and see.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD still seems to be in temper tantrum mode with what looks to be conviction to the downside but also showing a bottoming formation as it swings right back up to the highs it made earlier in the day yesterday. This is a classic example of why they call this pair a drama queen looking more like the star of a soap opera than a chart of a currency pair.

The best course of action here is to keep an open mind on direction and look for the short at yesterdays highs at 1.6678 or the long starting at 1.6610. The way I see it is the short has a better chance due to the closer proximity to current price and still around 30 pips away. Having said that when I look at the lows I am reminded of what I was discussing with a member last week and they are literally buying the crap out of the GBP at the lows so If I do manage to catch the short I will be take profit just above the lows. If I miss the short I will be happy to take the long preferably from the lower level at 1.6597.

GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The only news worth mentioning coming out during the London session is the GDP figures from Germany. Since they are released at the start of Frankfurt an hour before London starts any deviation will be what they run the Euro on temporarily. If it comes out as expected then we wont get much from it and likely see the London session be rather boring.

The US only has one release of note in the form of CB Consumer Confidence. Expectations are for a slight drop. If it misses downward they might think Janet will not keep up the taper but since they are seeing the same news I am its going to take much more than this piece of data to create any big boys thinking Janet will totally pull out of the taper and even potentially up the purchases.

Happy Trading


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1 Comment

  1. Robin
    Robin February 25, 07:31

    Chad, great commentary and view of the key levels to be watching, thanks for the comments, always great to use your view along with my own market review and then write my Daily Trade Plan, helps keep on track and profitable.

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