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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis February 26, 2013

So all it takes to send the Euro in a tail spin along with the rest of the markets in general is a political deadlock in Italy. Somehow that don’t surprise me but what was very interesting was the comedian running against the corrupt, already established elites actually got more of the vote than either Berlusconi or Bersani even though Bersani did win the lower house  and claimed the most seats in the Senate but was short of the majority in the upper house that it would need to govern. 

So what we have now was the clear false push up yesterday followed by the slam down as the election results came in. Today my bias is for the short on this pair and the levels I will be looking at are at 1.3122 where we have the resistance shown during the US session or possibly the Asian highs this morning at 1.3088. It will depend on how price leaves the Asian box. If it leaves it on the lows then the Asian highs are a probable level.

1 hour chart of the EUR/USD on Feb. 26, 2013

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The GBP/USD has seen a bump up due mainly to the Euro weakness. With equities plummeting along with all the risk currencies I cant see that this is anything close to GBP strength. I am still looking for the second push today but looks like we are going to get the deeper pullback first. The level that has the most potential with a break of yesterdays highs is the 1.5243. However again depending on how price leaves the Asian box the Asian highs here will have the same potential if it can get the drop before the Asian box closes.

1 hour chart of the GBP/USD on Feb. 26, 2013

Forex News Today

Scheduled releases are light today starting with a Governor King speech early this afternoon. The market will be looking for any clues to additional asset purchases so we will have to wait and see if we get it. With the Fed backing off a bit its possible that the BOE might too.

The Euro Zone dont have nothing of note but will still be digesting the Italian election. With nothing new coming out saying they have a solution to the stale mate its likely the move down on the Euro across the board will continue.

The US has New Home Sales expected to rise significantly. My thoughts are there is a bigger chance for the disappointment since the US housing market as a whole is far from recovering but you never know. Later Bernanke testifies to congress so that should be interesting. I have my doubts he will be told to get to work this time and the chance of the focus being on what was talked about in the meeting minutes and the Feds balance sheet along with the question of “is QE really doing anything for the economy” becoming more of an issue. 

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