EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis for July 3, 2013
Finally we have some clues on which direction the EUR/USD will go. With a first push to the downside today my bias will be for the short. Having said that I am still open for a long position but there will need to be enough manipulation to change that bias. At this point I do see a daily level not far below yesterdays lows at 1.2942 that may just hold. This makes me think they may give a deeper pullback before they make the push off. However I can also make an argument against that deeper pullback. With the daily close yesterday not being able to pull back above the low on June 26th shows there isn’t much interest in holding that level. Therefore that close along with the Asian highs so far this morning becomes a bit more significant.
The levels I will watch will start at the current Asian highs of 1.2982. Since price has been held there already this morning a clear stop run there will get me short. Preferably an hourly stop run with the trapping patterns during that hour candle. It looks good for a widening of the Asian range so far this morning so the more we see the better that level becomes. If it does manage to breach the Asian highs with no entry I will look to the 1.2990 level where there is the breakout form Fridays daily lows but the better level is just above at the psych 1.3000 where there is more daily lows and the chance of them letting it pass that now is rather low.
The GBP/USD has also made a first push to the downside giving us a bias for the short. With it finding support at the 1.5143 daily breakout level it may pull back a bit deeper also. However the test of the daily low and rejection at 1.5164 does leave the deeper pullback in question. The problem is without a break of the lows and widening of the Asian range the pullback probability increases. We will have to wait and see.
The levels I will be looking to short from will start at 1.5163 but I will want to see something significant showing manipulation during London due to the Asian range being only 20 pips if it cant push down. otherwise it will probably get to the 1.5183 level or possibly the psych 1.5200. I do think the 1.5200 has the best probability for manipulation but that is assuming it gets there. The only way I will consider a long on this pair is with an hourly stop run to yesterdays lows.
Update on my EUR/JPY trade
I wanted to update members on the EJ trade I took after the London session room closed yesterday. Price had hit and was rejected at the 129.85 level I mentioned in the room. It did show a fairly decent set of legs on the rejection and I took an aggressive entry at 129.97. After going against me about 10 pips and chopping for a couple hours it finally started to move off. I was tempted to just close it as I wasn’t up much at the US open but decided to hold as I usually do with a tighter stop. I stayed around long enough to see it start making closes above the London highs and set my stop at +45 and TP just below the daily level I figured it would test at 131.17. Ten pips below the daily level at 131.28. Well when I woke up I saw the price action and I was out. I figured I booked the 118 pips. Not so fast. Turns out it missed my TP by 7 pips and came back and booted me at +45. needless to say I wasn’t happy but I did book the 45. On to the next trade.
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Forex News Today
The calendar is light during the London session with just some services data marked as low impact so there wont be much movement on news during that session. Later the US has its ADP Nonfarm Payrolls. Expectations are for an increase but I expect there will need to be a large miss to make a decent move since Friday is the Nonfarm Payroll that Bernanke and the gang look at to help determine to taper or not to taper. There is also an early release of the Unemployment Claims due to the 4th of July holiday tomorrow. Expectations are for a small drop so watch for any big misses to see them make a stop run. If it does come out inline there wont be much and I expect them to continue the plan of the down move. otherwise a big miss to the upside will mean USD weakness and the opposite to see USD strength.
Gold Bubble Burst?
Here is an interesting podcast I found with Chris Martensen yesterday where he interviews Nick Barisheff on why gold will see $10,000. The argument is based on the keeping up of the print fest which may just happen. Im not so sure Bernanke wants to do it but its looking more and more like Obummer will let him go and find another crony to print enough cash to keep the US government running. I still have hope that either the market gets fed up or some politicians pull their heads out of their hind sides but this guy surely has a valid argument. Enjoy
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