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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis for March 7, 2013

The EUR/USD showed the push down yesterday. Having a daily close below the previous 2 days lows and 3 clear intraday pushes to the downside with yesterdays price action. There were a couple aggressive entries but I wouldn’t blame anybody for missing them. I missed them too and took the short on the EUR/GBP since it was the clearest with 2 sets of legs about 5 hours before the US session. I ended up closing it with just a couple pips profit about 3 hours later since it never made a shift off. A rather uneventful day since I missed the entry off the manipulation that started during the Asian session. Of course I will cover that in the live London session for members today. Along with why I preferred the short against the first push up in Wednesdays commentary.

With the push down today my bias is for the short. Right now its testing the resistance at the breakout during the end of the US session and as long as that can hold I will be looking at the Asian highs for the first manipulation. Its also very close to the psych level of 1.3000 and with the daily close below it for the first time since December it should have some more room down to possibly test the daily support at 1.2884. If the psych level dont hold then next in line is the break out level of 1.3010. I should also mention there is a slight possibility for a long from a stop run below the 1.2965 level but it will need to be very nice. With Draghi up today and expectations he will do some more of the Euro dump to help European exporters. Falling short of cutting interest rates most likely but with the Euro Zone at a snails pace there is the slight chance for a surprise cut.

1 hour chart of the EUR/USD on March 7, 2013

The GBP/USD made the expected push to the downside yesterday but ran off straight out of the Asian box and never looked back. There was some clean manipulation at the test of Tuesdays lows but having already ran 90 pips on the day made it difficult to take a short since it could have easily pulled back also. Even though there were nice moves yesterday they were difficult to trade.

Today I will be looking for the continuation to the downside. With the nice drop early in the Asian session, yesterdays lows around 1.5013 will be the first place I look for the manipulation. There is a chance we see the psych level of 1.5000 hold also but I want to see it hold during Asia and come back to test with some manipulation before I short there during London today. If for some reason the 5013 level gets blown by the next one that will likely be tested is 1.5040. The last concern I should point out is the chance for 3 intraday pushes being finished. From the recent highs I can see 4 pushes down but considering the bearish closes it will most likely keep going but may have the deeper pullback.

1 hour chart of the GBP/USD on March 7, 2013

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Forex News Today

The Euro Zone starts off with a couple important bond auctions that could have a decent impact. the first from Spain and the other France. Since these are long term auctions if they go badly and interest rates rise for Spain in particular it will be Euro negative. Of course if things go bad for France it will be expotential. there is also the German factory orders expected to drop slightly so if there is a surprise miss to the downside it will be negative. otherwise it will take a decent upswing to create much positive results because Germany may be doing fine for now but the rest of the EZ is slowly dragging it down with them. later in the day is the ECB Rate decision and Press Conference where I expect Super Mario to do more of a Euro dump rather than pump. Its slightly possible they fiddle with interest rates but not that likely.

The UK has their Interest Rate and Asset Purchase facility which could be a mover if they surprise and add to the Asset purchases. there has been talk on both sides of the argument so its not that clear and will likely hold for now.

 The US has its Trade Balance expected to get worse and weekly Unemployment claims expected to jump by over 10K. If we get the lower release it will be USD positive and opposite for a substantial increase above the expected 10K.

Happy trading


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