EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis for November 27,2013
The EUR/USD did manage to finish out the third push to the upside yesterday getting a little closer to the 1.3578 daily high so I will be expecting the reversal today. Considering that I have my doubts that anybody will want to be the tall blade of grass that gets cut it has a decent chance of running off from here to potentially test the lows at 1.3489. Not only is there that but the ECB has been coerced some what to start up more of their own unconventional measures ie full blow QE. This make me believe there will be some intent on keeping this pair inside this 300 pip daily range its at the top of right now. The wild card is Germany letting the ECB “get to work” and if they wont let that happen then the highs will break since consensus is that the US wont or even cant taper even if they try and use the verbal manipulation hinting they will.
I will be keeping an open mind on direction preferring the short from the highs or the stop run above 1.3578. It looks as though they are holding the breakout level at Mondays highs so far so its looking good but still early in the day. I wont be convinced they will be willing to break the highs unless I see the conviction close above that 1.3578. Then I will consider the long either from the Asian lows or yesterdays highs depending on how far it runs above the highs. If they do push it up it has a ways to go before it finds significant resistance to potentially turn. If I do catch the preferred stop run to the highs I will only be holding for the 40-50 pips to yesterdays lows and calling it a day. If I miss the short I will consider the long around 1.3520 during the NY session with the right trapping price action.
The GBP/USD has gone into the chop with no clear direction so the safest way to trade this will beat the current significant levels and either play it safe and take the 40-50 pip profits or take the risk and see if we get a break in a direction. At this point with the more potential for the false push down the break to the upside has higher probability and we are seeing a little push during Asia. Members know I am leery of them but it does agree with the false push. We will have to wait for London to see for some confirmation.
The best level for the short since we do have the hourly close above yesterdays highs already will be the recent overall highs or even just above at 1.6247. Otherwise I will be looking for London to confirm the conviction and look for the long at todays Asian lows or yesterdays highs again looking to see the highs break. Since the Euro looks good but not confirmed and goes it will likely drag the GU with it.
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Forex News Today
The only high impact news during the London session today is the UK GDP figures. Expectations are it to remain flat so we will need a miss to create any sustained move and the smaller the miss the higher probability it will just be used as a stop run event and will continue in the planned direction.
The US has Durable Goods Data expected to rise above the zero mark and I expect that to be priced in already. The chance for a miss to the downside is higher the way I see it but there is always that chance I am wrong. This also will just a chance to manipulate in my view and they will make the push as planned since tomorrow the US is on holiday. There is also the Unemployment data pushed forward due to the holiday but I don’t expect much from that either unless there is a large negative miss.
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