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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis January 3rd 2014

Today is the last high risk trading day of the holidays so it is still advisable that anyone trading today should be careful. Most traders wont be coming back from their vacation until next week and the markets should return to the new normal if one could call what we have these days normal in any way. I say that jokingly because it dont really effect us much but when the big boys can execute their plan that’s not reliant on whether or not the Fed, ECB, BOE or BOJ is going to dump more money in the market makes for a more normal market. We will see.

The EUR/USD has made a clean push down out of the two and a half day chop it was in after the spike on December 27th s the higher probability is for the next push down today. Having said that, the fact that it stopped at a significant daily level des raise the question of if there is enough conviction to break it. I have my doubts the weekly flows will have much of an effect considering the liquidity is still low. I will have a small bias for the downward move but would prefer to see some conviction below the lows first. If it can make the push down during Asia to test the lows the range will be wide enough to consider the Asian highs or the 1.3671 level for the short but if they make the hourly close below the 1.3629 level early in the London session they probably wont pull back all the way to the Asian highs.  At that time the 4hr 200 ema at 1.3662 is valid to see manipulation but it will need to be a good set up and I will treat it as an aggressive entry no matter what today. The only possibility I see for a long is a stop run to the lows or several trapping patterns during London around 1.3642 showing they refuse to let it go lower. Any trade will require a good entry to minimize risk as much as possible on a higher risk trading day to begin with.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD showed the first push up was false but with the three intraday pushes down for 193 pips does have the potential to be finished for now. On a daily scale it looks to have more downside potential than the Euro does but from the looks of both charts right now they should move together today again. The best course for today is to keep an open mind and look to short at the Asian highs if the range widens a few more pips or take the stop run to the lows for a long or at the 1.6420 level if the trapping patterns are effectively screaming at me.

GU 1hr chart

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Forex News Today

The scheduled news is almost non existent with only a Fed member speech late in the day and then token taper Ben Bernanke gets his chance to pull an Alan Greenspan and say he started to taper bond purchases and what happens after he is gone is up to Janet Yellen. This should be good. Be careful if you are in a trade or exit with some profit before he speaks.

Have a great weekend


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