EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis November 14th 2013
The EUR/USD made the push to the upside yesterday as expected but had a dip down lower than I thought it would so anybody who took the long from the clear manipulation around 1.3415 would have been stopped out break even or barely got 40 pips on the best entry. The run up during the NY session was nice but even if I was looking at the market at the time the level was not all that great and trading two pins that late in the day is tough for me. Its valid with it being in the area of the manipulation box but aggressive and I will leave those alone.
Again we can look at this pair two different ways in that we have three intraday pushes up and expect the reversal or the two long term pushes. Since the long term pushes have higher probability and we haven’t seen any topping formation as of yet I will have a small bias for the next long term push up to test the highs around the 1.3527-46 area. The best level I see for the long is around Tuesdays highs at 1.3455 but they may stop it just above at the hourly 200 ema that was respected rather well yesterday. I will prefer to see price leave the Asian box closer to its highs in order to increase the probability of the 200 holding since the Asian range is tight right now. Having said that if they can make the test down during Asia and pull back up I will be happier taking the long even though the Asian range will still be shy of what I like at only about 25 pips. I will be happier if they test the more probable level just below at 1.3455. There is still that slight chance they do the reversal since reports say the ECB is likely to start its own QE program but I have my doubts Germany will like or allow that. However they may have no choice if they want to keep the charade going.
The GBP/USD had a wild reversal to the upside yesterday starting when the Unemployment data was worse than expected. This is a classic case of the plan did not follow the news since the worse than expected data should have sent the GU lower but they had other plans and pushed it higher along with the big push down in the EUR/GBP.
I will be expecting the next push up as well here today but will be cautious as it could also be a fake out with the false push. The best level I see for the long is at 1.6009 where the four hour 200 is but may dip as low as 1.5992 while they manipulate the ema traders. Otherwise I will be open for the short but will need some pretty clear price action showing the push up is false.
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Forex News Today
The scheduled releases that are high impact start with the UK Retail Sales figures during the London session. Expectations are mixed so my thoughts are we will need a big miss to create much from it.
The US session has Thursday Unemployment Claims expected to drop slightly. I would expect that to be priced in so far and with the Janet Yellen speech later in the day it will take a big miss there also as they wait for her. On that topic I will say she is expected to weaken the USD further when she replaces Ben and has already said the Fed “has more work to do” so that is clear hints at increasing QEternity.
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