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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis October 22, 2013

The EUR/USD did absolutely nothing yesterday staying in an even tighter range than last Friday. This leaves the same options mentioned in yesterdays commentary open. The only thing that has changed is the probability of the push up has gone down somewhat. I would prefer to see the hourly close below yesterdays low in order to be convinced there is conviction in the move for a short or Fridays highs for a long. There is the higher risk long from the stop run to the lows or short from the same from the highs but with the market in this range for 2 days now testing either side raises the possibility for the break so taking the more aggressive stop run entry will require a nice set up and good entry so if it doe break I can get out with a smaller hit.

On a side note they did schedule this months Non Farm Payroll figures for today so there is a good possibility that this pair will just chop around here until after the release. As Goldman has noted “Any positive number will be discounted because it came before the DC theatrics and if it’s weak it confirms that tapering should be put off longer.” In other words it should be USD negative either way in their view. Having said that there is still the potential that the same creates a risk off situation and the EU drop as they flee the riskier Euro for the USD. I am not willing to make the call on that one just yet.

EU 1hr chart

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The GBP/USD is in a little different situation having some conviction to the downside during the Asian session. While most know I always doubt that its true due to the potential of it being a false break as they accumulate longs in this case. As long as we see the that London agrees then I will have the bias for the short today. Also seeing a wider Asian range will help but not convince me unless it leaves the Asian box on the lows and London manipulates to the upside with a clear trap around the Asian highs. Otherwise the best potential I see for a long is 1.6058 but they may not let it pass the psych level of 1.6100 either. Considering the NFP figures release today and Goldman is correct than a spike down on the news may just give the manipulation for the long in between those levels. For the most part the short looks best on this pair as long as everything lines up.

GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The only other significant release besides NFP today is the US Unemployment Rate expected to stay flat at 7.3%. If it does spike higher then the chance of the USD weakening is high due to expectations of the Fed actually increasing purchases rather than just concerns of never tapering. This could easily create the spike and run up on the GBP/USD

Otherwise there is the TIC Long Term Purchases but barring a big miss the other big data will be what they pay attention to.

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