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EUR/USD, GBP/USD April 10, 2013 Commentary

The EUR/USD went on to test the 1.3100 level just as I mentioned in yesterdays commentary. Now its looking better for the reversal but I have to admit I am not that impressed with the topping formation. What is clear is the 3 intraday pushes in the third push up  along with the scope of the long term pushes. However it don’t guarantee the reversal. The higher probability is for the reversal as they will be wanting to get some of their money back but being open on direction is best with the price action I see today. The level I will be looking for the short will be yesterdays highs at 1.3102 but I will want a clear stop run. The level I will consider a long is the break out of 1.3064 and I would like to see the Asian lows hold until London opens then see them manipulate the London breakout traders to take the long. Otherwise they will probably test down lower to the daily highs of 1.3037 that coincides with the 15 minute 200 EMA.

EUR/USD 1hr chart April 10, 2013

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The GBP/USD has gone into a chop scenario but at this point its looking more like the push to the downside was false and now we may be seeing the next pushes to the upside. I wont be totally convinced until we get the push and close above the 1.5362 level but the movements have been clear enough to suggest that they were looking to clear out some longs before the next push up. The first place I will be looking for the long is the 1.5287 level but I will also be keeping in mind the 80 level is just below and they may do a stop run below it first. Otherwise I will be open for the short with a stop run to 1.5352-62 daily levels . Preferably the highs since the probability of more stops being there to take.

GBP/USD 1 hour chart

Forex News Today

Releases are light again today with only Industrial Production from France and Italy during the early European session. I doubt these will have much impact but if there is a large surprise to the upside we may see some decent movement.

During the US session the Fed meeting minutes are released and I will be looking to see if there was more members looking at exits of the QE scheme or the opposite with any who were against thinking that more QE might be needed since the jobs data was a large disappointment last Friday. Its up in the air on this but if history is any clue then we will more likely see them talking of extending or adding to the 85 billion on the jobs data. Little do they realize of the 3 trillion already spent has had little to no effect on jobs. Will they ever learn? Probably not.

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