EUR/USD, GBP/USD April 9, 2014 Daily Analysis
We did get a clean second push on the EUR/USD yesterday. I have to admit its a little disturbing that we didn’t get the entry during the live London session but as we have said many times. Its better to follow your plan and lose (in this case miss the trade) than to deviate from your plan and get paid for it. Today I will be bias for the third push upwards looking to see it run as high as 1.3844 or higher depending on where they start the push from.
The best level to see manipulation at today is 1.3769 where the four hour 200 sits along with a significant support level. It would be best to see them test upward during the Asian session but that may not happen considering what they have been doing as of late. The 1.3787 is also significant but I will need to see the test upward or even better see conviction above the highs before I consider the long there due to the close proximity to current price. There is a small chance that they will push it down to 1.3748 but I have my doubts since the hourly200 ema is just above there.
The GBP/USD is an entirely different story with its 150 pip move from yesterdays lows after the much better than expected Manufacturing and Industrial production data. If it had made a normal push I would only be looking for the third today but with it moving twice its average daily range they mat pull a reversal today to try and push out some of the weak holders before moving this pair upwards again. It is clear that the pumping of the housing bubble in the UK is having an effect and this could last for quite some time. Its really the same thing that went bad for the US in 2008 and one of those things that works until it doesn’t. Therefore the fundamental picture is for a stronger GBP but pushing it up after a move like yesterdays is questionable. Having said all that I will have a small bias for the next push up but open for the short at the highs of 1.6753.
If they do have that much conviction in the move they wont let it get past the 1.6717 to drop into the inefficient part of yesterdays so that’s where I will prefer to look for the long. However if they do push upward with conviction during the London session today I will consider a higher levels either at the Asian lows or yesterdays highs depending on how much conviction we get in that scenario.
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Forex News Today
The only real significant news today is the FOMC Meeting Minutes which could be interesting if they discussed anything about the low effectiveness of the QE program. If so that will signal the taper will continue and potentially have a rise in interest rates which they will try and slow but may not be able to. Otherwise there is a Fed member speech but with not much from the others that were recent I doubt Tarullo will open a can of worms.
Tomorrows Asian session traders need to keep an eye out for the Aussie Unemployment data along with Chinese Trade balance. These will most likely only effect the AUD and NZD crosses but could spill a little into the Yen crosses if the Chinese data misses big.
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