EUR/USD, GBP/USD August 27, 2013 Daily Ananysis
My apologies to those who missed yesterdays commentary. This server transfer took much more time than we expected and we should have all the bugs worked out shortly.
I was expecting the third intra-day push up yesterday that never came and I did get the entry long I was looking for once price hit the 1.3363 level. Since it couldn’t continue after the shift and chopped around for 3+ hours I just closed it manually at break even an hour or so before the US opening just to be on the safe side. I would have to say that at least for the month of August the summer slow down has hit this year but will be over by next week and the markets should get back to the new normal we have had in previous months. Especially once Merkel gets reelected in Germany and they allow the European crisis to show its teeth again.
I will still have a small long bias today ad although the 1.3363 level is still valid I will expect if they need to get orders stacked they will run stops below 1.3355. If the upper level can hold it will be due to reasons that either they don’t need stops or there are so many breakout shorts below its just not worth spending the money to get the stops. Otherwise I will be open for a short from yesterdays highs but the fact that Fridays highs are just behind at 1.3408 the trapping will need to be nice and I will want the best entry around or above 1.3393.
The price action on the GBP/USD is really nothing but slop so I will be treating it as the third push chop with no clear bias on direction. As with any chop situation the safest trades will be from the extremes (daily highs/lows) but with the larger chop just behind from last Friday a clear set up and great entry will be important in taking the long from 1.5559 or the short from 1.5610. Even the hourly conviction close above or below those levels don’t have far to go before there is a level in the way that could possibly turn price so if I do manage an entry on this pair I will be cautious.
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Forex News Today
There is not much for scheduled releases today. During the London session there is German IFO Business Climate figures. Expectations are for a rise to 107.0 and considering the late German figures this will most likely come out close to expectations and give them a reason to buy Euros. Plus with Merkel still waiting on the election there will most likely be a cover up of the hit on Italian bonds yesterday which will also push the Euro up.
The UK don’t have any news of note while the US has CB Consumer confidence expected to drop some. Unless we get the miss to the upside which I doubt this will throw more water an any tapering to come in September and the USD should weaken. Next month is definitely going to be interesting.
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