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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Commentary March 20, 2013

As I sit here this morning thinking of how I will start off todays commentary I cant get this stupid  80’s song out of my head. I cant even say I have heard it recently but it seems kind of crazy it comes into my mind and wont go away. I cant remember who sings it but I think the title was Every Body Wants to Rule the World. What sticks out most is the chorus where they say. “Holding hands while the walls come crumbling down”. I some how doubt there will be much holding hands though. Rolling heads seems more likely in this case. For those who know the song. You can thank me later for it sticking in your head all day. 

It sure seems fitting for whats going on these days and even though the powers that be have been warned a jazilloin times they still seem to think they can pull something off that will miraculously hold everything together. It reminds me of what one of my grade school teachers told me growing up. “You get an A for effort but a big fat F for results” I just couldn’t describe what is happening any more simple than that. Crazy I tell you.

So here we are with Cyprus not fixed , nor will it be going away any time soon. As I mentioned in Mondays commentary the world and more so Europe is standing on a thin razors edge between trying to hold things together by any means and falling into full panic mode where the walls come crumbling down pretty quick. One thing of note is Spain just changed their constitutional rules to allow for a run at depositors also. Lets all say it together now. BANK RUN! If there was any way to hasten the panic button being pushed this is it. I have a feeling some where down the road of history these people in charge will be looked at and every one will be saying “What in the heck were they thinking?” The clear answer will be “They weren’t”

I could go on and on about what they could have and should have done but this commentary would end up being a book and thats not the purpose. Suffice it to say history has proven every single time that central planning has NEVER worked and failed EVERY time. Yet here they are trying again there by showing they are ALL INSANE. Isn’t the definition of insanity trying the same thing over again and expecting different results? How is it that somebody like me that never went to college gets it but they don’t?  I have no idea but what I always tell people that ask. “I have to honestly say that if I am one of the smarter people in this world. We are in big trouble.” Whats really sad is it seems more and more true these days. 🙂

So what do the charts tell us? We have a clean first push down on the EUR/USD. Breaking and closing on the daily chart below Mondays low showing they are definitely bearish and my bias will be for the short today. The first level I will be looking to short from is the daily low Monday at 1.2881. However I would be most happy seeing the test of the level during Asia first proving is as resistance and then a clear manipulation pattern during the London session. Otherwise there will be the possibility of testing the psych level of 1.2900 or even reaching as high as 1.2920.  The potential for a long is there also but I will only be looking at that if I am not short and we get a nice stop run to yesterdays lows.

EUR/USD 1 hour chart

As you can see I didn’t even have to move my lines on the GBP/USD as absolutely nothing has changed other than my bias has gone more to a neutral stance rather than expecting the reversal. the price action yesterday does look more bearish than bullish but that’s nothing to build a solid bias on so I will be looking at the same levels for either the short or long today. I should also mention that the 1.5123 level is still valid only because of the psych 20 level the GBP loves to turn on. Taking a trade there today will need to be a rather nice set up.

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GBP/USD 1 hour chart

Forex News Today

The calendar starts of with German PPI data. I have doubts this will cause much reaction baring a jump above 2% which is unlikely at this time.

The UK has their unemployment figures and the MPC Meeting Minutes at the same time. We may see a reaction from the unemployment data if there is a big miss but I expect the MPC to take over shortly after. Since they seemed to be changing their stance last month we could see more of a surprise this time around.

The US has the Interest Rate, FOMC Minutes and helicopter Ben speaking a half hour later. The Interest Rate is a no brainer. Nothing new there. The FOMC however could be a volatile event depending on if there is any talk of stopping the QE . I doubt they will actually say any think like that but there may be more members talking about an exit this time around which will be USD positive. Then there is Ben. If I know good old Ben he will squash any hopes of an exit strategy saying something to the effect of “we are all in and its just tough s&@t if you dont like it” Seems likely dont it? You never know though Ben could have a surprise up his sleeve. Maybe even asking just how much they think would be a reasonable percentage of US savings accounts would be reasonable to steal. Joke haha

Happy Trading


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  1. alex123
    alex123 March 20, 06:36

    Hi Chad,

    Excellent commentary as usual thank you.
    UK also has Budget speech at 12.30 GMT. More info here if anyone is interested.


    Reply to this comment
  2. Graham
    Graham March 20, 08:04

    Name of the band – Tears for Fears. Haha, kinda appropriate huh? 🙂

    Reply to this comment
    • Chad
      Chad March 20, 09:22

      Yes that is the band. thanks for reminding me 😉 Did you enjoy haveing that song in your head all day? LOL

      Reply to this comment
  3. Mike
    Mike March 20, 08:06

    Big Day for UK today. Today the chancellor George Osborne reveals his Budget, one of the biggest day in the UK economic calendar.

    Reply to this comment
  4. Rene
    Rene March 20, 13:00

    Chad, you wrote:
    “Spain just changed their constitutional rules to allow for a run at depositors”
    I can’t find any reference to that, I guess it’s not yet approved. Where did you hear this ?

    Reply to this comment

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