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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis December 19, 2013

Well the Fed gave us a token taper like many were expecting. Now Ben can say “hey I began to stop the bond buys and its all Janets fault” when things go down the proverbial crapper. On top of that the gave us the great example of why its best to stay out of the markets on a day like yesterday. Any EUR/USD short during London would have whipped out before New York started and then any long during New York would have been beat up before the Fed event. Personally I was enjoying the Christmas program at my four year olds school. Good times.

Today I would be expecting more USD strength against the Euro mainly. The move on the EUR/GBP shows the Euro is the weaker of the two currencies. The trouble is where they may push it off from and I should remind every one of the Surgeon Generals Warning. If it does manage to push off decent during Asia like its starting then yesterdays lows may be all they run it back to before it moves off but if there is any desire to push out some shorts from yesterday then they will run it up to at least 1.3708 or higher. There is also the chance that they see the token taper for what it really is and reverse this move all together after a fake out to the lows. Be careful and manage any trades with care today.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD had the first push up yesterday since the EUR/GBP has a terrible day. Normally we would be looking for the next push up but as with the Euro if I was going to be looking for entries today I would be very cautious and manage any trade as high risk. As it stands the best level I see for the long is the range between 1.6347 and 1.6334 where the daily high that found support yesterday is and just lower has the hourly 200 ema as confluence. To take a short I would prefer a stop run to the highs as most know but there is also the area around 1.6400 that has some significance from the 12th last week. If the USD strength does persist then this pair will have the false push while the Euro runs its second down.

GU 1hr chart

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Forex News Today

The economic calendar today has Retail Sales Data from the UK having expectations of a decent rise so as long as it don’t disappoint we may see the GBP strength continue while we have USD strength at the same time and the GU will hold a tighter range today. Otherwise a miss to the downside should create the false push.

The Euro Zone has a Spanish 10yr auction that could go bad but I have my doubts. It would be a good idea to watch for those results just in case.

The US has Thursday Unemployment Claims expected to drop but as before will most likely be doing so on people running out of benefits rather than finding jobs so it may be ignored. Unless if course it disappoints big. At the same time there is a Fed Member Fisher speech but I doubt it will have much impact after the Fed yesterday. A little bit later the Existing Home Sales data is released expected to go lower so I expect it will take a good miss upwards to create a sustained move and would be more USD strength if it did.

Happy Trading


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