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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis April 14, 2014

Today I will be taking the day off of trading to participate in the Light Of Peace of the Philippines. They plan to break the Guinness world record of candle art with the message of world peace as the backdrop. At this time it seems that the world could use a bit more peace and less aggression. Im sure it will be making national news so if you see the tall bald white in the crowd, that just might be me ­čÖé

Of course I wont leave you all hanging for analysis today but I will try to keep it short and to the point.

With the gap in the EUR/USD this morning jumping 40 pips what I will be watching to see is if they close it during the Asian session. So far it don’t look like they will but its still early. At this point the ECB has started some verbal intervention talking about the strength of the Euro and potential looser policy if the strength continues. Now that he has said it I would expect the market to test it as usual. Having said that the Fed hasn’t really shown any sign of stopping the taper o this may continue.

Since we more or less have our reversal from the highs Friday I will be open for direction today. I will be looking for a long at Thursdays lows of 1.3835. In order to take that long I will want to see them move price up during Asia, leave the box close to the highs before they run the breakout traders and hit stops at the lows. If we get the conviction during the London session below that level I would be bias short and look for the manipulation on a pullback to either the Asian highs or above at Fridays close at 1.3884.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD had a smaller gap that has closed already. There was a small amount of conviction to the downside Friday, however it is still within the third push upward so I will be keeping an open mind on direction for the most part today. The reason is that I do see two intraday pushes from the highs and they may be running them for the third today. The best level I see for a potential short is 1.6753 but if they do show conviction to the downside they may stop it just below at the highs during the end of the US session Friday. I will be open for the long at Fridays lows but will want to see the same scenario as the potential long for the EU or they just wont let price pass the lows at 1.6715.

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GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The calendar is pretty quiet until the NY session today with US Retail Sales data. Expectations are for a slight rise so it will take a big miss as usual in order to see any spikes or sustained moves. I have my doubts it will miss big but like I have said many times before. Nothing surprises me about the markets any more.

Asian session traders tomorrow need to keep an eye on the Aussie RBA Meeting Minutes. That has potential to send the SUD pairs running depending on what they were discussing at the meeting.

Happy Trading


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