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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis April 21, 2014

As expected we didn’t see much movement Friday and I hope every one enjoyed a day off trading along with the long weekend. There was a little selloff late in the day that was gapped up this morning looking more like a fake out at this time but we will have to wait and see what they do today to get a better bearing on direction. At this point I am not so sure the gap will get closed early on today, mainly because with the low volume Friday and gapping into the chop this morning I have my doubts the gap traders will be all that convinced either. We will have to wait and see.

We do still have the two push scenario but the probability that we will get the third has gone down substantially with not even a slight attempt on Friday. I will have a small bias for the long today and the best level to see the manipulation is at Fridays lows of 1.3803. However if they show the conviction below there during the London session they will show the second push has failed and will most likely test the over all lows at 1.3789. I will be open for the short at 1.3819 but will need to see something rather clear there showing they wont let price pass. There is quite a bit of confluence there with the daily level, hourly 200 and psych 20 level so it has a decent chance.

Update: Now that the gap has closed for the most part if price leaves the Asian box closer to the highs then the long from the lows has a better chance.

EU 1hr chart

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The GBP/USD is also less clear on direction than I like so I will be keeping an open mind on direction on this pair today also. Having said that there does seem to be more probability for the short due to the fake out to the highs last week. That’s not enough to build a bias with but does tell a story of where they have a slightly higher probability of pushing today. The levels haven’t really changed much but the daily high from Wednesday last week is still valid for a short along with the Friday highs of 1.680. Otherwise the best chance for the long is at 1.6773 but I would prefer to see them play the breakout traders to the highs if they keep the tight range during the Asian session.

GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

There is absolutely nothing on the calendar worth mentioning today. Banks are still closed in most o Europe and the UK so trading will most likely be similar to Friday and entries will most likely come during the US session.

Happy trading

Chad

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