EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis February 28, 2014
The move on the EUR/USD yesterday is indicative of a fake out with the run down piercing the four hour 200 EMA and rejected back up to make a first push to the upside. This will give me the bias for the next push up but considering its Friday and the last day of the month there is the chance that we see price stay in a tight range today. Having said that the best level for a long today is the breakout at 1.3692 but if they cant push it up during the Asian session they will more likely test down to the 1.3680 level where there is some proven support. I will be open for the short with a stop run to yesterdays highs but will need to see some clear trapping along with it to change the bias for the long.
The GBP/USD ran down to test Wednesdays lows giving a nice stop run for a long position yesterday. Good job to those who caught the reversal there. Today it also has a potential first push up but considering its shy of what we want to see as a push along with the end of week/month flows it has a better chance of getting stopped again around the 1.6700 level than making a next push up. I will be open on direction for this pair today.
In order to be comfortable with a short from 1.6700 I will need to see the test down during the Asian session. If they don’t do that then the break up to test 1.6720 before the reversal down has a higher probability. The levels that are probable for a long are 1.6658 or the lows at 1.6620. However if they do push it that low I hope to be short and taking profit. The 1.6680 level has potential for the long but only if we see the conviction above yesterdays highs during the London session and pullback with a stop run.
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Forex News Today
The only significant news releases during the London session is German Retail Sales and Euro Zone CPI data. With the Retail Sales data expected to be at 1% it should only make a big impact if it drops below zero again. The CPI data has a better chance of creating a decent move or manipulation if it drops close to or below zero. This will freak out the ECB thinking deflation and potentially open Germany up for QE especially if they both disappoint dramatically. There is also a Fed speech from Fisher at the same time but I have my doubts he will say much that’s different than the Feds latest comments.
The US session starts off with US GDP figures with a low bar set at 2.5% so my thoughts are this will be close. Of course a big miss will create some volatility and from what I see it has a slightly better chance of disappointing rather than missing to the upside. A bit later is Pending Home sales but this will need a big deviation to do much also. What I do think has the biggest potential to create a move on the GBP pairs is a BOE Carney speech in the mid US session so watch out for that.
Have a great weekend
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