EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis February 7, 2013
The price action on the EUR/USD yesterday shows that the plan for making the 3rd intraday push was scuttled and now the clearer scenario they have gone into wait and see mode for the coming ECB rate decision and press conference. I expect the Asian range to be rather tight baring a tape bomb from the EU Summit starting today. Having said that I will be treating it with caution watching how it reacts at the 1.3544 level and yesterdays lows at 1.3492. It would seem that there may be some conviction to the downside at this point with the hourly close below the 1.3500 level but I am cautious with levels like this when there is another support level just below at 1.3457. The conviction could easily get turned if it gets there. To be honest I have my doubts I will get a nice entry today until after the ECB and super Mario do their thing.
The GBP/USD had the chop holding a 45 pip range yesterday but in essence is telling me the same thing. they have no clue what the BOE is going to do today so there was no conviction on direction. I pretty much expect the same again today until late in the day when we will see if they are going to add to the Asset Purchase Facility. I am not really convinced in one way or another on this. There has been chatter on increasing the purchases but with the large moves down it would seem that this is largely priced in so the wild card is that if they don’t fire up the presses then the GBP will get a jump across the board. The levels to be watching are yesterdays highs and lows. A good conviction candle in either direction will give a hint as to where they think it will go but I will need a very clear set up to take a trade on this pair today.
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Forex News Today
As usual all the scheduled events on the calendar will take a back seat to super Mario and the BOE today but there are some events that may give us some clues to what is in store.
The only one of note from the Euro Zone is German Industrial production. Its expected to remain at 0.2% so if we do see a jump then the chance of seeing a rate cut from the ECB goes down albeit slightly. Not that I actually expect them to cut today but if Germany is seen to be improving at all the chance does go down since we all know who really pulls the strings at the ECB. There also is some French bond auctions today. What makes these significant is they are long term bonds at 7, 10 and 15 year redemptions. If these to go substantially south the Euro will take the hit. I do doubt this will happen but with Spanish and Italian bonds taking a bit of a beating recently there is a chance.
The UK has both Manufacturing and Industrial Production figures due today. The expectations are for some improvement so if we see the surprise to the upside especially in the year on year figures the chance of adding to The Asset Purchases goes down. Having said that I do have several British buddies that tell me the UK economy is still hurting substantially so I would think it would take substantial improvement to rule out more printing entirely. Expectations are they wont do it this time around but you never know.
The US has Unemployment claims expected to drop slightly but this is released at the same time Draghi starts his speech so I doubt there will be much reaction without a big surprise.
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